The NBA season tips off this week with the Milwaukee Bucks entering the season as the defending champs, and the Eastern Conference featuring more depth and intrigue from top to bottom than it has in recent years.
There are familiar faces in new places, major questions hovering around a couple perennial contenders, and a few teams that missed the postseason last year looking to work back into the playoff picture after making changes in the offseason.
As the action gets underway in The Association, we add to our NBA Tip-Off series with a bold prediction for each team in the Eastern Conference.
Atlanta Hawks: De’Andre Hunter, All-Star
Injuries limited Hunter to 28 combined games last season, yet the Hawks made a surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they were eliminated by the eventual champion Bucks. Now that team, which has remained largely unchanged, gets a full season with Nate McMillan at the helm and a breakout season from the Virginia product.
All-Star appearances are about both production and narratives, and Hunter will produce on the court. He averaged 15 points in his limited time last season, contributing a little of everything across the board while being the best wing defender on the team. With slight statistical increases thanks to sustained health and a few more minutes, plus the team taking another step forward, Hunter will stand out as one of the big keys for Atlanta’s growth and garner All-Star consideration.
Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum, Top 5 MVP Finish
Tatum has improved in each of his four NBA seasons; he’s a two-time All-Star and already has an All-NBA season under his belt, so the pedigree and perception are both there for him to become a legitimate MVP candidate this season.
Boston has taken a bit of a backseat in the Eastern Conference discussions, but the Celtics are deeper than they’ve been in a couple years, and have a new organizational structure with a first-time coach everyone loves. If Boston makes a push toward being a Top 3 seed behind a 28-8-4 season from Tatum where he’s averaging two steals and a block per game, the fourth-year man from Duke will be in the MVP conversation and finish in the Top 5 when the votes are tallied.
Brooklyn Nets: Best Record in the League
That’s not a super-bold take, but it’s hard to say anything too bold about a team that is a playoff lock and title favorite.
Brooklyn is uniquely positioned to dominate when both Kevin Durant and James Harden play while still being capable of thriving if / when one of them sits, as they added a bunch of additional depth. The organization has done what they can to minimize the Kyrie Irving “vaccination question” impact by making it clear he’s not playing on a part-time basis, Steve Nash has quickly proven himself to be a quality coach, and the talent is there for Brooklyn to earn home-court advantage throughout the playoffs without pushing too hard.
It doesn’t really matter because the Nets will be judged on their postseason, but a 65-win season and the best record in the league are legitimately on the table.
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, All-Star
Ball won Rookie of the Year in a season where he was limited to 51 games and came off the bench for 20 of those tips. He had tons of highlight moments that lit up NBA Twitter, shot it better than most expected from deep, and instantly looked like the best cornerstone option out of last season’s Top 3 picks.
With Charlotte primed to be frisky and potentially take another step forward and LaMelo at the helm all season, the 20-year-old will claim his first All-Star appearance in 2021.
He might get voted in by the fans — he’s that popular and there are a couple Eastern Conference guards that should take a step back (Kyrie, Ben Simmons) in terms of voting, but even if he isn’t, an improved team with a developmental step forward from the youngest of the Ball children will be enough to land him a reserve spot.
Don’t be surprised if LaMelo goes 20-8-8 this season.
Chicago Bulls: Bulls Struggle, LaVine Asks Out
Chicago went all-in on a push to make the playoffs last season, sending Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter, and two firsts to Orlando for Nikola Vucevic and Al-Farouq Aminu.
They finished 11th in the Eastern Conference, failing to qualify for the play-in game.
This offseason, the Bulls traded another former lottery pick, Lauri Markkanen, to Cleveland in a three-way deal that netted them Derrick Jones Jr. and a first, while adding DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso to the Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Coby White core that remains.
Chicago feels like a team with no direction or cohesive identity, which will lead to early season struggles and the talented shooting guard making it known that he has no intention of re-signing with the Bulls when his contract expires as the end of the season. This could turn into one of the more intriguing stories of the season because while LaVine isn’t quite in the Bradley Beal, Karl-Anthony Towns range in terms of potentially disgruntled stars looking for a change, he gets bucks, doesn’t turn 27 until March, and could be an impact player for a team that believes they’re one piece away.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Major Trade is Coming
Cleveland has the pieces to be involved in something big this season and as a team in the early stages of another “LeBron Left, Now What” rebuild, continuing to shake things up and add long-term assets is a must.
The Cavs have overlap at a couple key spots — three young guards that don’t necessarily fit well together; three young bigs that don’t mesh well either — plus they have Kevin Love’s albatross of a contract still on the books. Add those things together and you have the makings of a team that could be the third team grabbing picks while holding onto bad money or one that makes a play for “a piece and a pick” while shipping out one of their own younger, miscast players.
Collin Sexton and Markkanen are the most obvious candidates, along with Love, obviously, but smart teams will be trying to pry the newly signed Jarrett Allen away if they can.
Detroit Pistons: Worse Record But Greater Hope
Detroit went 20-52 last season, landing the first pick in the draft, where they selected Cade Cunningham.
While there is reason for long-term optimism, the Pistons look like a team poised to take a step backward before moving forward as they remain one of the younger teams in the league and light on impact players.
Last year’s picks Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, and Saddiq Bey are all solid players, but still inconsistent, and it remains to be seen how Jerami Grant will mesh with Cunningham after signing with Detroit in order to be the No. 1 option and hub of the offense. Everyone else is either a recycled veteran or an unproven youngster, and while Dwane Casey is a good coach and the future looks brighter than it has in a number of years, Detroit is still going to struggle.
Indiana Pacers: Playoffs and Feisty, Guaranteed
Do not underestimate what a difference it will mean for Indiana to go from the chaos that was the Nate Bjorkgren Era to having an established, title-winning grown man like Rick Carlisle on the bench this season.
Despite a litany of injuries and all the dysfunction brought on by the coaching staff, the Pacers still finished ninth in the conference and only four games below .500 last season. Carlisle alone has to be good for those four wins, and probably plenty more, which means this collection of quality pieces should be a real pain to play on a nightly basis.
Two seasons ago, with much of the same core, Indiana were the four seed in the Eastern Conference. Now they have additional complimentary pieces and a better coach. They’re making the playoffs and will be the “Why did we not see this coming?” team in the Eastern Conference this season.
Miami Heat: Most Disappointing Team in the East
All last season, the expectation was that Miami would turn things around; that the Heat would finally shake out of their inconsistent funk and play like the team that made it to the Bubble Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers.
It never happened, they got swept in the first round of the playoffs, and the fix was to add Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker…
The consensus is Miami is going to play suffocating defense anchored by Butler, Bam Adebayo, Lowry, and Tucker, but three of those four are in Year 11 or greater, and Tucker’s reputation feels greatly exaggerated coming off a series where he was a zero on offense and was torched nightly by Kevin Durant.
This feels like a team that is going to need time to figure out how everything fits and find a rotation that works, while also relying on some unproven guys off the bench. Victor Oladipo is a massive question mark, and if one of Butler, Lowry, or Bam goes down for any length of time, things feel like they could crater in Miami this season.
Milwaukee Bucks: Everything Geared Toward Repeating
The regular season doesn’t really matter anymore for the Milwaukee Bucks. All that matters is getting to the playoffs as healthy as possible and giving themselves the best chance to repeat as NBA champs.
Last season’s 46-26 record translates to a 52-30 mark in 2021-22 and that feels about right. While it might seem underwhelming for a team with this much talent and coming off a championship campaign, all the Bucks need to do is make sure they get to the playoffs and arrive in good health, because that’s what matters most.
The regular season will be as much about getting new arrivals like Grayson Allen, Semi Ojeleye, and Rodney Hood integrated into roles, easing Donte DiVincenzo back into the rotation once he’s ready to return, and keeping everyone fresh as it will be about posting victories.
After years of coaching teams that put up big win totals, but had no real playoff success in Atlanta, this is the year Mike Budenholzer does the opposite.
New York Knicks: Big Step Back Is Coming
Last season was nice — a surprising fourth-place finish in the Eastern Conference, an All-NBA season from Julius Randle, a return to relevancy in the first year of the Tom Thibodeau regime … so many fond memories, and that’s good, because this season isn’t going to be as much fun.
Everything clicked for the Knicks last season — they shot it well, they got relatively healthy seasons from most of their core pieces, and they enjoy the improvements every team enjoys in Thibs’ first season.
Ir’s his second season and the new pieces — Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier — don’t necessarily mesh well with the returning stars, while also potentially taking away minutes from youngsters like Immanuel Quickley, who should be getting more run this year, not less.
A return to battling for a place in the playoffs — and potentially missing out — seems likely for the Knickbockers this season.
Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Rookie of the Year
Picking the fifth pick in the draft to win Rookie of the Year may not sound that bold, but Suggs isn’t going to be the highest-scoring rookie and won’t get as much national coverage as some of his classmates.
What he will do, however, is captain a team in Orlando that is going to be vastly improved than in recent seasons, with a return to health for Jonathan Isaac, further development from Mo Bamba and Chuma Okeke, and solid contributions from Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, and the Wagner Brothers, Moritz and Franz.
With a first-year head coach and a long stretch of being underwhelming, a season where the Magic are challenging for a playoff spot and showing a ton of promise for the future, combined with solid numbers across the board and a couple of those clutch moments he showed at Gonzaga will earn Suggs some hardware at the end of the year.
Philadelphia 76ers: Play-In Tournament Participants
The Sixers may have finished first in the Eastern Conference last season, but those were happier times, more cohesive times, and the limit changes that have transpired since were… meh.
The Ben Simmons Saga is no closer to being resolved, and there is no way that some of what has been said since the end of last season doesn’t have a lingering impact in the locker room. Maybe that doesn’t bleed over to the court, but spending the entire season in the spotlight, with the pressure ratcheted up doesn’t feel like a recipe for success for a squad that has underperformed each of the last two postseasons.
What if Simmons makes like James Harden in Houston at the start of last season and shows a complete lack of interest in hustling?
What if Joel Embiid’s annual 20 games on the sidelines becomes 30 or 35? What if Simmons or Tobias Harris run into health issues?
There are just too many questions and potential issue hovering around this team to pencil them into the Top 6 in the Eastern Conference this season.
Toronto Raptors: Play-In Tournament Participants
While taking part in the Play-In Tournament would be a brutal season for Philadelphia, it would be a boon for the Raptors, who return to Toronto after playing last season in Tampa.
Toronto has historically been excellent at developing players, and this season will be a reminder of that, as youngsters like Precious Achiuwa, Gary Trent Jr., and Malachi Flynn all take another step forward, while Pascal Siakam returns to his pre-bubble, All-Star caliber ways and OG Anunoby continues to show he’s one of the absolute best all-around talents in the league.
Nick Nurse is a phenomenal coach that gets the most out of everyone on the roster, and this is a solid group that is going to surprise a lot of people this season.
Washington Wizards: Daniel Gafford, Most Improved Player
Gafford won’t win the actual award because the NBA tends to give the award to a good player that makes the leap to superstar status — Julius Randle won it last year; Brandon Ingram the year before — but the third-year big flashed upside in his 23 games with Washington last season. With Thomas Bryant still recovering from an ACL tear last season, Robin Lopez and Alex Len both jettisoned, and Scott Brooks no longer making the rotations, Gafford should have a real opportunity to establish himself right out of the gate.
Russell Westbrook isn’t around to demand 10 rebounds a game anymore, and a shift from 18 minutes a game to somewhere closer 30 could allow Gafford to deliver Clint Capela-like numbers on a nightly basis; think 15/10 with a steal and a couple blocks.
Those are MIP-worthy numbers for a guy that was a second-round pick and an add-on in a three-team swap last season where the names everyone paid attention to most were Troy Brown Jr., Mo Wagner, and Daniel Theis.
(Wednesday: The Western Conference)
