The fourth quarter of a football game is the most intense and exciting one, which is reflected over the course of a season. Just like in a game, teams are entering the fourth quarter of the season with one of the following mindsets;it's over, we still have a chance, it’s looking good, or we got this in the bag.
It took one season for the NFC to quite literally be flipped on its head. In 10 months, the Los Angeles Rams went from Super Bowl champs to being one of the first teams eliminated from playoff contention.
Only one NFC division winner from 2021 sits atop their division going into the fourth quarter of the 2022 season, and that is the 6-6 Buccaneers. But as some teams underperform, others in the conference have surpassed expectations and are on the cusp of making the playoffs.
The few teams who look like playoff locks will be getting an A on their report card at this point in the season. After the top teams, there are the bubble teams and the teams who still have a chance at the playoffs. Below them are the teams who are struggling or just downright failing the 2022 season.
The NFC A-List
Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) –NFC’s No. 1 seed
The NFL’s top dog through three-quarters of the season is the (11-1) Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles had high expectations coming into this season, but even the most die-hard Eagles fans are a little surprised that their team has the best record in the NFL.
Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts took a huge leap forward in his third season and has become one of the best QBs in the NFL. His progress, plus great drafting and team building, turned the Eagles into the most well-rounded team in the NFL. The Eagles have been dominant most weeks, winning all their games except three by seven points or more.
The Eagles' only slip-up came in Week 10 at the hands of their divisional foes, the Washington Commanders. The Commanders benefited from three fourth-quarter fumbles by the Eagles. If the Eagles can manage to not ‘fumble’ away their season in the fourth quarter, then the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will be heading through hostile Philadelphia.
Minnesota Vikings (10-2) – No. 2 seed
The Vikings are practically locked into one of the top three seeds because they are five games up on the second-placed (5-7) Lions in the NFC North and four games ahead of the (6-6) Buccaneers.
The Vikings are undefeated against the AFC, with impressive wins over the Bills and Dolphins.
Their two losses come from the two teams they are sandwiched between on this list. The Vikings were outscored 64-10 in their two defeats to the Cowboys and Eagles.
RBs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison are a great one-two punch and provide a balanced attack with superstar WR Justin Jefferson. Jefferson’s 1,277 receiving yards are third-most in the league, and for how good he's been, the Vikings' defense has been equally bad at stopping WRs. The Vikings have given up the most passing yards in the NFL. If they want to make a splash in the playoffs, they will need their defense and QB Kirk Cousins to step up to the occasion.
Dallas Cowboys (9-3) – No. 4 seed
The Cowboys are two games back in the NFC South and are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. The offense has found its groove, scoring 122 combined points in their last three games.
The Cowboys are dominating opponents on both sides of the ball and look more like a ‘Super Bowl contender’ than they have in a long time. They have the third-highest-scoring offense and have given up the third-fewest points. That is a recipe for success in the playoffs.
Dallas has games against the Texans and Jaguars before they play the Eagles for a huge divisional contest in Week 15. The Cowboys only need the Eagles to lose one game and for them to win their matchup against them for them to win the division and become the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
San Francisco 49ers (8-4) – No. 3 seed
The 49ers have dominated on the defensive side of the ball all season long, giving up a measly 15.8 points per game. Their top-ranked defense has not given up more than 17 points in any of their wins this season and has only given up more than 20 points twice.
San Francisco's run of injuries is impressive at this point. The most recent injury to their squad meant the 49ers had to go to their third-string QB Brock Purdy in their Week 13, 33-17 win over the Dolphins. QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a broken left foot early in Sunday's victory. Garoppolo's injury comes just 11 weeks after Trey Lance went down with a right fibula fracture.
49ers captain LB Fred Warner was questioned about how he felt about Brock Purdy playing QB. Warner was quoted saying, “He's played against the best defense in the league for the past 13 weeks. So, he's going to be just fine."
B is for Bubble
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) – No. 3
For many reasons, the 2022 season may be remembered by many as the fall of Tom Brady.
But let’s not blow anything out of proportion here. Brady has not played all that badly, and he is averaging 266 passing yards per game, which is good for fifth most in the league.
Brady and the Bucs have struggled in the red zone, which has led to them not scoring many touchdowns. As a result, they are averaging 18.1 points per game – fifth least in the NFL. One thing remains from a season ago, and that is that their defense is still very good, and are only giving up 18.3 points per game – fifth least.
The Bucs saved their season and practically ended the Saints' playoff hopes on MNF in Week 13. Tampa overcame a 16-3 deficit by scoring two touchdowns in the final 3:03 and swept the season series against their NFC South rival. The Bucs will probably finish as the fourth seed in the NFC, and if they can get on the same page in the red zone, they will be dangerous come playoff time. No one wants to face the GOAT (Tom Brady) in January.
New York Giants (7-4-1) – No. 6
Three weeks ago, the New York Giants were 7-2 – one game back from the first-place Eagles. The last three weeks amounted to losses to the Lions and Cowboys, and a tie with the Commanders. But even after three weeks without a win, the Giants are sixth in the conference and control their own path to the playoffs.
It took eight games before the Giants' defense gave up more than 23 points in a game. New York is 7-0-1 in games it gives up less than 24 points and 0-4 when a team scores more than 24.
The re-emergence of RB Saquon Barkley has been a huge part of the Giants' success this year. Barkley and QB Daniel Jones have run all over defenses and have carried the Giants to the sixth-most rushing yards this season. The ‘G-Men’ are in a great spot to make the playoffs, but if they want to make a run for the Super Bowl, they will need to be able to throw the ball and win a high-scoring game in the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks (7-5) – No. 7
All signs in Seattle during the offseason were pointing to a rebuild. Like when the Seahawks let their All-Pro LB Bobby Wagner walk in free agency this offseason because they didn’t want to take on a big contract. The Seahawks are definitely ahead of schedule, but they still look more like a team that needs some retooling.
The Seahawks' surprising success is mainly due to the impressive play by QB Geno Smith. Smith has been solid all year at playing within Pete Carroll’s system, which does not ask the QB to do too much. Smith was able to get his first game-winning drive this past Sunday when the Seahawks took a 27-23 lead with 0:36 seconds left in the win over the Rams.
Smith and the Seahawks' offense has been firing on all cylinders and are ranked sixth in points scored with 26.5 per game. On the other hand, their defense has struggled at stopping their opponents, giving up the fourth most, 25.3 points per game. If their defense continues to struggle, then the Seahawks are still at least a year away from being a real threat to win the Super Bowl.
Washington Commanders (7-5-1) – No. 8
Washington seemed doomed for another bad season when it started 1-5. Carson Wentz was at QB during their horrible start, but things turned around when they inserted Taylor Heinicke into the lineup when Wentz went down with an injury. Since the change, the Commanders have had one loss in their last eight games and are one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now.
The tie with the Giants in Week 13 did not hurt them, but it did not help them pass the Giants in the Wild-Card standings. The Commanders have made a habit out of ugly, low-scoring games that come down to the wire. They have only scored more than 30 points once and have only given up more than 30 once as well.
Heinicke has done everything this team needs him to do not to lose those ugly games. If they want to make the playoffs and possibly beat someone, they will need a little more out of their QB down the stretch.
C is for Close (But no Cigar)
Atlanta Falcons (5-8) No. 11
The Falcons are currently ranked 11 in the NFC standings but are only one game back of the Bucs for the lead in the NFC South. Anything can happen with one-quarter of football left to play and a date with the Bucs in Week 18.
The Falcons have ridden the legs of Cordarelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, and Marcus Mariota for 155 yards per game – second-most rushing yards per game this season. The coaching staff has not let Mariota air it out much, instead opting to control the clock and keep it close, which is exactly what they have done in the NFC South.
The Falcons are on a bye in Week 14, which could help them get out of their most recent rut. Atlanta has lost 4-out-of-5 of their last games by an average of just over five points. Atlanta is one game back of first place in their division, but they are also very likely to end up with a top-10 pick. They are probably better off with the top-10 pick than a date with the NFC’s best in the postseason.
Detroit Lions (5-7) – No. 9
After the first quarter of the season, the Lions had the highest-scoring offense and the last-ranked defense in the league. Their offense has come down to earth and is currently ranked sixth with 26.3 points per game, while their defense is still dead last – giving up 27.0 points per game.
The Lions will need to win four out of their last five games to make the playoffs. They are still scheduled to play the Bears and Packers, which they have already beaten this year and a struggling Panthers team. They will need to find a way to beat the Vikings and/or the Jets in the next two weeks, and they have an outside shot at sneaking into the postseason.
Green Bay Packers (5-8) – No. 10
The Packers' 13-4 record in 2021 was the best record in the NFC, and many people believed they would be right back to where they were last season because Aaron Rodgers was back under center. With three-quarters in the book, Packer fans are looking around and scratching their heads, wondering what the heck happened this season.
The Packers' offense has been out of whack all season. Everyone believed they would be a ground-and-pound team with two top-tier backs, which would open up throwing lanes down the field for one of the greatest QBs ever to play the game. That dream never came to fruition, as the Packers have struggled to run the ball consistently. Mixing a struggling running game with injuries to their already thin, young receiving corps has kept the passing game out of rhythm all season.
The defense has not held up their end of the bargain either after they finished as one of the best squads last year. The Packers do not do anything well enough to be a contender. But as long as Rodgers is under center, they are dangerous. I’m sure the top teams in the NFC will rejoice if the Packers actually get eliminated in the coming weeks. Green Bay will need to win at least three of its last four and still have games against the (8-4) Dolphins and (10-2) Vikings.
D is for Disastrous
Carolina Panthers (4-8) – No.13
The Panthers were the first team to fire their head coach (Matt Rhule) this season after a 1-4 start. Although it hasn’t gotten much better since the firing, the situation in Carolina has improved slightly. The Panthers have won two of their last three games and could make a run at the division title.
The disastrous Baker Mayfield saga came to a crashing halt when they released the QB earlier this week. With Mayfield and Rhule out of the building and new draft picks from shipping Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, the Panthers are better off looking toward the future than trying to catch the Bucs.
Arizona Cardinals (4-8) – No. 12
The hottest coaching seat in the NFL right now is in Arizona after a disappointing season thus far. Coach Kliff Kingsbury has not been able to turn talent into wins for the Cardinals. The front The Cardinals’ front office has spent a lot of money filling out their roster and expects to win now, but the lack of chemistry and winning culture has been too much to overcome.
Arizona’s defense has given up the second most points this season, and their offense has not been able to overcome that kind of play. QB Kyler Murray has been average at best, leaving the Cardinals' front office with more questions than answers heading into 2023.
New Orleans Saints (4-9) – No. 14
The Saints had a chance to throw a huge wrench in the NFC South but could not stop Brady from leading a comeback victory on MNF. The loss practically ended the Saints' postseason dreams along with the Panthers.
The Saints' biggest problem this season was not being able to get consistent play from their QB. QB Jameis Winston was hurt and awful when he was in the lineup, and QB Andy Dalton was what we’ve come to expect out of Andy Dalton – average. With a possible top-10 pick, the Saints could fix their QB issues in a loaded QB draft next year.
Chicago Bears (3-10) – No. 16
Bears fans are excited about this season even though the Bears are eliminated from the playoffs and have only won three games. A big reason for their positive outlook is that second-year QB Justin Fields showed huge progress and put together some super impressive weeks.
The Bears will most likely end up with a top-five pick in next year's draft and have acquired extra draft capital next year to help the rebuilding process. With a good draft and another leap forward from Fields, the Bears will be a playoff contender next year. Chicago fans are now rooting for losses but for Fields to play well and stay healthy for the rest of the season.
F is for Failure
Los Angeles Rams (3-9) – No. 15
The defending Super Bowl champs have the second-worst record in the NFC and are eliminated from the playoffs. It just goes to show you how quickly things change in the NFL. One year your champs, and the next year your chumps.
The Rams have lost six straight, and during that span, their offense has been unwatchable. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse in L.A., they go out and sign Baker Mayfield off of waivers. Even though he fills a need for the Rams, this signing shows you how desperate Los Angeles is. Mayfield has an 18.2 Total QBR in 2022, ranked 520th out of 521 qualified QB seasons since the stat started being tracked in 2006.
