If you are competing for the fantasy playoffs in November, then you did a decent job in August when you picked your team.

 

Some events throughout an NFL season are unpredictable, but if your team is staring down the barrel of the playoffs, you were able to “predict” the first half of the season better than your league mates. Fantasy football is all about avoiding the early-round bust and finding the value in “surprising” players.

 

If you were one of the unfortunate saps who used their early draft capital on one or more of the “busts” of the 2022 season, then your team has most likely struggled. In the early rounds, it’s much more essential to avoid the “bust” than to get the top scorer of the round. 

 

The later rounds are much different because a player technically cannot be a bust. Players being drafted in the later rounds are not expected to produce at a high level. The late rounds provide the chance to find huge upside and draft players that will smash their expectations and become the biggest surprises of the fantasy season. 

 

All that to say that when deciding if a player is over/underperforming, we need to first look at the average draft position (ADP) of the players in question. The numbers in the parentheses next to the players' names are the ADP and the position rank during drafts from fantasypros.com. The first numbers are the position rankings and points per game average for each player through Week 9.

First-Half Busts

Many of the fantasy busts are pieces on offenses that are underperforming. The Broncos, Raiders, Rams and Packers all have been much worse than people thought they would be before the season. The Steelers had low expectations as a team, but their offense has been even worse than the worst “haters” thought. 

 

Busts Honorable Mention:

QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Cam Akers, RB James Conner, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Elijah Moore, TE Darren Waller

Russell Wilson – QB21, 15.0PPR (ADP76, QB9)

Russell Wilson was the center of the sporting world when he inked his name on a five-year contract extension worth $245 million, including $165 million guaranteed to quarterback the Denver Broncos to their fourth Super Bowl victory. Too many commercials and not enough football is what the first half of the season has looked like for Wilson. Wilson, on average, was the ninth QB selected in fantasy drafts, and he has scored fewer points than Jimmy Garoppolo, who went undrafted in nearly every league. Wilson and his top two WRs have been some of fantasy’s biggest disappointments. Wilson should be sent to the waivers until Denver changes something offensively or fire their coach.

Najee Harris – RB28, 9.4PPG (ADP7, RB6)

Where do I start with Najee Harris? Alabama’s all-time leading rusher looks inexplosive and washed at the ripe age of 24. The Steelers' offensive line play has been even worse than expected, and the bar was set pretty low last season. The O-line struggles have been a significant factor in their offense ranking last in scoring with 11 total TDs this season. Harris’s three TDs don’t look so bad when he accounts for nearly 30% of his team's TDs. Harris has consistently left his managers wanting more with his 3.3 Y/A this season. I invested a lot in Harris this draft season, and I am now questioning why I even believed he was more favorable than many other guys. 

 

Najee Harris scored 14+ fantasy points in 13 of 17 games in 2021, tied for the most among RBs.

He has 0 games with 14+ fantasy points through 8 weeks this season.

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 1, 2022

Jonathan Taylor – RB36, 10.6PPG (ADP1, RB1)

Jonathan Taylor, the consensus first-overall pick in drafts, is off his ground game. Another running back on a bad offense that just can’t seem to get any momentum going on the ground. The Colts have the second-worst scoring offense, scoring 12 TDs this season, and JT only has one of them. One big reason Taylor was taken No. 1 is that he had never missed a game due to an injury at any level of his football career. That changed this year when Taylor was forced to miss two games due to an ankle injury. If you take away Taylor’s Week 1 25-point explosion, he is averaging just under eight points through the other five games he has played. The Colts have parted ways with head coach Frank Reich and made former center Jeff Saturday the interim head coach. The shakeup will hopefully spark their offense and get Taylor back to his dominating ways of yesteryear.

Diontae Johnson – WR42, 7.9PPG (ADP46, WR18)

Diontae Johnson was the second Steelers’ player taken in most drafts in the fourth round. Johnson ranked third and sixth in targets in 2021 and 2020, with Ben Roethlisberger at QB in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger retired, forcing the Steelers to look for a QB for the first time in almost 20 years. Mitch Trubisky got the first crack at the job, but he underwhelmed as the starting QB and was benched in favor of rookie first-round QB Kenny Pickett. The combined underwhelming QB play, mixed with the emergence of rookie-WR George Pickens, has led to many frustrations for fantasy teams counting on Johnson. There could be brighter days for Johnson in the second half of the season because WR Chase Claypool was traded to Chicago, and there is a possibility that Pickett and the offense get slightly better. 

Allen Robinson II – WR61, 6.2PPG (ADP51, WR21)

Allen Robinson II was being drafted right around the time Johnson was, and he is having a worse season. Robinson has played in all eight of the Rams games and has scored the 61st-most points amongst WRs. The veteran WR had a lot of hype surrounding his move to the defending Super Bowl champs. Drafters of Robinson were hoping the former All-Pro would be able to dominate single coverage with teams doing their best to take away Cooper Kupp. Turns out Kupp is unstoppable and the only consistent fantasy starter for the struggling Rams this season. 

Dalton Schultz TE33 4.7PPG – ADP58, TE6

Dalton Schultz was viewed as a “good value” pick in the fifth round after finishing 2021 as TE3. Schultz has had a tough start to the year, averaging under five fantasy points. An injury to Dak Prescott, plus Schultz dealing with a knee injury of his own, amounted to two games with zero fantasy points. With Prescott back under center, Schultz has averaged 8.9 fantasy points in the past two games. The 26-year-old looks like a weekly starter for the rest of the fantasy season, and he should be able to climb the lousy TE ranks. 

First-Half Surprises 

The teams in New York both having six wins after Week 9 has to be the biggest surprise of the NFL season thus far. The Seahawks holding a 1.5-game lead in the NFC West is also very shocking, mainly because they looked to be in rebuild mode this offseason. Although many expected the Vikings to be better, they surprised even their biggest fans with a 7-1 start. Opposite to the bust list, the surprise list is full of players on offenses that are exceeding expectations. 

Honorable Mention

QB Geno Smith, RB Kenneth Walker III, RB Dameon Pierce, WR Christian Kirk, WR Tyler Lockett, TE Tyler Conklin

Justin Fields – QB7, 19.0PPG (ADP142, QB17)

Justin Fields started the year with three out of four games with less than 10.5 fantasy points. It looked like the Bears' offense was going to go through another year of miserable unwatchable football. Then something happened in Week 5, and Fields posted his first game of the season with more than 15-points in a loss to the Vikings. Fields’ fantasy points have increased each week since that game, capping off his epic five-game stretch with a 42-point performance in Week 9. Fields broke the regular season record for most rushing yards in a game in the Bears' most recent loss to Miami. Fields has worked himself into a top-10 fantasy QB and looks like a clear league winner if he keeps trending in the direction he is going.

 

Justin Fields has more rushing yards this season (602) than

Joe Mixon
Christian McCaffrey
Ezekiel Elliott
Austin Ekeler
Alvin Kamara
Leonard Fournette
Najee Harris pic.twitter.com/uJcdfoSLsy

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 7, 2022

Jamaal Williams – RB13, 14.1PPG (ADP 145, RB52)

Jamaal Williams once again flew under the radar as a highly-skilled backup RB. Most of the buzz in Detroit was focused on starting RB D’Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Swift’s injury history, combined with Williams' previous success, should have been enough to warrant a higher ADP for Williams this draft season. Williams has quietly posted four games with two TDs for a total of eight and has two games with over 100 all-purpose yards this season. Williams is a big part of the Lions’ offense, even with Swift in the lineup, and he should be able to keep pace in the later half of the season.

Rhamondre Stevenson – RB8, 14.7PPG (ADP 86, RB36)

Rhamondre Stevenson started the season as the backup to RB Damien Harris. Stevenson scored eight fantasy points combined over the first two contests. From Week 3 on, the Oklahoma product has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game but one. Stevenson received some attention from the fantasy community this offseason when the news dropped that he was expected to take over the “James White role” and split carries with Damien Harris. Stevenson looks like one of the league’s best all-around backs and would finish the season that way if he was the “bell-cow” in New England. Instead, Harris should be healthy after New England’s bye week in Week 10. Although expectations fall slightly with a healthy Harris, I still expect Stevenson to average around 12-14 points per game in the second half of the season and finish as a top-12 back.

 

Players with 500+ rushing yards and 200+ receiving yards this season:

Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson pic.twitter.com/sGeEpJZ2eK

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 2, 2022

Curtis Samuel – WR14, 10.7PPG (ADP 323, WR102)

Curtis Samuel has the lowest ADP out of all the players on this list. He was going undrafted in many standard leagues. Samuel opened the year with two weeks finishing in the top 25 of WRs, before having four games in a row with less than seven points. During that four-game stretch, the Commanders’ offense was appalling with Carson Wentz at QB. Washington is using Samuel in the rushing game a bit more over the past three games, and he has averaged more than 79 total yards per game over that span. The former Buckeye has the skills to be used in a Deebo Samuel-type role and could continue to produce good numbers. QB Taylor Heinicke is settling into the starting QB role in the second half of the season, which looks like an upgrade from Wentz. 

Tyler Boyd – WR13, 9.0PPG (ADP 155, WR51)

There was a lot of hype for receivers who were getting drafted right before Tyler Boyd. Many top rookie-WRs like Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, Skyy Moore, and veterans like Jarvis Landry, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage all went before Boyd. Boyd has posted three games with under five fantasy points, which was expected as the Bengals' third option at WR. What is surprising is that Boyd already has two weeks as a top-three WR, with a 16.5-point game and a 21.5-point game. Teammate WR Ja'Marr Chase is expected to miss more time with a hip injury, boosting Boyd’s value while he is out. But even with a healthy Chase, Boyd has the ability to produce big games and should be able to finish the season as a top-20 option at the position. 

Taysom Hill – TE3, 11.3PPG (ADP245, TE26)

Taysom Hill has a 34-point performance that has boosted him to TE6 this season. To go with that top finish, he has two more top-5 finishes at the position. The Saints' use of Hill as a runner and a passer makes him one of the most intriguing players in fantasy. His upside has been massive, but Hill’s usage has been unpredictable, leading him to score less than 1.5-points twice this season. If the Saints committed to getting him touches each week, he would finish in the top five of his lackluster position group. But, for now, he is fantasy’s biggest gamble on a weekly basis. 

 

Players with 500+ rushing yards and 200+ receiving yards this season:

Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson pic.twitter.com/sGeEpJZ2eK

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 2, 2022