In three weeks the 2023-24 NFL regular season kicks off, and at least a couple of rookie quarterbacks will be baptized by fire. At the end of July, the Carolina Panthers officially named top overall 2023 NFL Draft pick Bryce Young their starting quarterback. The Panthers aim to build something special around Young, after failed experiments with QBs Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, and 2022 third-round pick Matt Corral. 

 

On Tuesday, the Indianapolis Colts gave the nod to No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson after just one preseason game. Richardson will have the opportunity to display his dual-threat skillset as the starter for the Colts from Day 1. Veteran Gardner Minshew and his marvelous mustache will back up Richardson behind center, and Indianapolis marches into what they hope will be a bright future for the franchise.

 

Three years ago, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson were featured on Netflix's "QB1" docuseries, but the season never released... until now.

Tubi will air all episodes of the fourth season, which chronicled their senior year of HS starting today.

➡️ https://t.co/QjeCVePBEk pic.twitter.com/BTDa205IHD

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) August 10, 2023

 

At present, the second overall pick from the 2023 NFL Draft, C.J. Stroud, is trending toward being handed the reins of the Houston Texans’ offense. If Stroud wins the starting job in Houston, all three first-round QBs from the 2023 Draft are being thrust into action right out of the gates. It has been said that “fortune favors the bold”, and the Panthers, Colts, and Texans all hope that this particular proverb proves to be true.

 

No. 1 pick Bryce Young has won Carolina’s starting QB job.

No. 2 pick CJ Stroud is expected to start his second straight preseason game and appears in line to be the opening-day starter.

No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson has won the Colts’ starting QB job.

A rush to the rookies.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 15, 2023

 

How well have high first-rounders fared in their rookie campaigns at the quarterback position recently, and what can we expect from Young and Richardson? 

 

2022: Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

In the 2022 draft, the only quarterback selected in the first round was Kenny Pickett. The Pittsburgh Steelers took Pickett at No. 20 overall, and by Week 5 of the 2022 season he was the starter. The Steelers were 7-5 in the games that Pickett started, and the former University of Pittsburgh standout performed reasonably well. Pickett led the Steelers on four game-winning drives, and Pittsburgh was surprisingly in contention for a playoff spot until being eliminated in the final week of the regular season.

 

2021: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Former Clemson Tiger Trevor Lawrence dominated the college football landscape, compiling an astounding 38-2 record as Clemson’s starter, winning a National Championship along the way. Unfortunately for the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2021, his collegiate success didn’t translate smoothly to the NFL. Lawrence often looked uncomfortable in the pocket and made plenty of rookie mistakes. The Jaguars were 3-14 when Lawrence started, and it was a season to forget in Jacksonville. 

 

Lawrence improved by leaps and bounds in his second year, and the Jaguars were an extremely exciting team to watch, especially in the second half of the season. Evolution. 

 

2021: Zach Wilson, New York Jets

 

The Jets selected BYU star Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in 2021, and it was a disaster almost immediately. Wilson actually outperformed Lawrence in many ways as a rookie, but the Jets’ record was still a dismal 3-10 when he started for them. 

 

The crucial difference between Lawrence and Wilson going forward from their rookie struggles is the fact that the former rebounded and has shown flashes of brilliance, while the latter has hit rock bottom professionally.

 

This is not to say that Wilson cannot bounce back to have a productive career in the NFL with the Jets or some other team in the future, but his rookie hazing produced some painfully catastrophic results.

 

2021: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

 

The Chicago Bears snagged Ohio State stud Justin Fields with pick No. 11 in 2021. Veteran ginger gunslinger Andy Dalton started Week 1, but by early October Fields was the man leading Chicago’s offense. Similarly to Lawrence and Wilson, Fields struggled to make an immediate impact in the win-loss column, going 2-8 as a rookie starter.

 

The Bears allowed Fields to work through his growing pains on the gridiron, which continued the following season. Fields was only 3-12 in his second go-round with Chicago in 2022, but the professional approach he took regarding his development has paid off for all parties. Now the Bears are building a contender around Fields, and it’s within abstract reason to believe that Chicago may have a dark horse Super Bowl squad on its hands. 

 

2021: Mac Jones, New England Patriots

 

With Alabama Crimson Tide product Mac Jones, the story is a strange one. The Patriots picked Jones at No. 15 overall in 2021 and he quickly made an admirable adjustment to the pros. Jones compiled a 10-7 record as a rookie in New England’s system, earning a Pro Bowl spot while leading the Patriots to a playoff berth. 

 

The Patriots were smashed by the Buffalo Bills 47-17 in the Wild Card round, but Jones had presumably earned some respect. Jones finished second in offensive ROY voting, only behind Cincinnati Bengals’ WR Ja’Marr Chase. Despite all of Jones’ accomplishments, the Patriots drafted QB Bailey Zappe with pick No. 137 in 2022.

 

After a choppy start to his sophomore season, fans and media outlets were calling for Jones’ head. Now Jones is in a battle with Zappe for the starting quarterback position in New England. Nothing is guaranteed.

  

The Moral of the Story

 

While the vast majority of starting rookie quarterbacks have struggled mightily during their first season or two in the NFL recently, it is important to get their development moving forward in live time. Coaches and franchise decision makers need to see what they’ve really got, so they can plan accordingly to support said player appropriately. Why not trust these elite athletes to experience some intense on-the-job training while their confidence levels are still at an all-time high? This is the reason they were drafted. 

 

The players who make it through the trials and tribulations of the first couple of years will emerge on the other side battle-tested at the highest professional level. The Colts finished 4-12-1 last season, and Richardson has his work cut out for him with regards to making Indianapolis relevant again in the AFC South. The health and overall status of RB Jonathan Taylor will play a major role for the Colts. Taylor was injured most of last season and requested a trade last month, and it remains to be seen how the story ends. 

 

Meanwhile, the Panthers finished tied for second in the NFC South with a record of 7-10, so one might think that Young is in a slightly better position to succeed in the short-term than Richardson is. However, Carolina traded RB Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers for draft picks late last season, and dealt WR D.J. Moore along with a chunk of valuable draft picks to the Bears in exchange for the slot that enabled the Panthers to select Young first overall. So, in many ways it’s back to the drawing board. Young and Richardson project to be working with somewhat limited resources, at least to begin. Both of these young men have gargantuan tasks ahead of them, and we will learn quite quickly what they are made of. The NFL is not for the faint of heart.