NFC Divisional Round Playoff Preview

By Steve Tsilimos | Posted 3 months ago
NFC Divisional Round Playoff Preview

The first round of the NFL playoffs saw five out of the six games end in a blowout, three of which were upsets. The outcomes of Super Wild Card Weekend reconfirmed that momentum and how a team finishes the season is much more important than how they start it. The teams that limped into the playoffs (Eagles, Dolphins, Cowboys, Steelers) all suffered embarrassing losses by 14 points or more. 

The only close game of the wild-card games was one of the more anticipated games of the first round. The Lions withstood the Rams' late comeback efforts, winning their first playoff game in 32 years by a score of 24-23. 

The Divisional Round is set, and the Ravens and 49ers are gearing up to play their first playoff game of the season. The top seeds are heavy favorites in both games and had their odds of making the Super Bowl increase because of the upsets that took place.

Four games are set to take place this weekend, one from each division on Saturday and Sunday. Let’s take a closer look at the two NFC clashes that will determine who will play for the crown of the conference.

(7) Green Bay Packers at (1) San Francisco 49ers 

When: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox)

Opening line: SF -9.5 (50.5)

Green Bay Packers

The Packers not only went into Dallas and knocked off the No. 2 Cowboys – they wiped the field with their long-time rival. It was talked about all week that the Packers are the youngest team in the NFL and that their season was a success just by making the playoffs. Not many people gave them a fighting chance to go into AT&T Stadium and take down a Cowboys team that was a perfect 8-0 on their home turf during the regular season. The Packers were not intimidated, and they handled their business like they had been there before.

Quarterback – Jordan Love

Packers QB Jordan Love was nearly perfect in his playoff debut, going 16-of-21 for 272 yards with three TDs and finishing with a QBR of 157.2. Love benefitted from the Packers finding success on the ground with their veteran RB Aaron Jones, who finished the game with 21 carries for 118 yards and three TDs of his own.

Love may have had one of the most dramatic improvements by a quarterback in a one-year span ever in the NFL. The Packers were 2-5, and there were rumblings that Love was not the guy, and the Packers would need to look at drafting a QB in the upcoming draft. Coach Matt LaFleur stuck by his guy and started opening the playbook more in the second half of the season. Love and the offense responded by steadily getting better, finishing the season by winning six out of their last eight games. From Week 10 until the end of the regular season, Love finished second in QBR.

In his first playoff game, Love proved to all his doubters that Green Bay made the right decision by taking him in the first round of the 2020 draft even though they still had Aaron Rodgers. Love showcased his athleticism and arm talent against one of the best defenses in the league on one of the biggest stages. His confidence should be through the roof, and if he can play this week like he did against the Cowboys, then the Packers may just upset the NFC No. 1 seed.

Offense

The Packers' offense looked like what their fans hoped it would look like this offseason – run-heavy with precision passing from Love. The Packers are set up to succeed in December in January because they have one of the best running backs to run their offense through. Aaron Jones dealt with multiple injuries this season, which is why he had the worst statistical season of his career, but he showed up when his team needed it most. 

In the first round, the Packers had their top WR, Christian Watson, back from a hamstring injury that cost him four games, but they leaned on their other second-year wideout, Romeo Dobbs, in the win over the Cowboys. Dobbs led all receivers with 151 yards on six catches. Love and the Packers offense is dangerous and tough to gameplan for because there are six very good pass catchers that can beat you. The other WRs, alongside Watson and Dobbs, are two talented rookies, Dontavion Wicks and Jaden Reed. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave and Jones out of the backfield are dangerous in the passing game.

If the Packers can run the ball effectively, they become very hard to stop because of how many weapons they have. Everyone talks about how many weapons the 49ers have, but I am here to tell you the Packers have more weapons. The 49ers' defense is one of the best in the league, but they will undoubtedly have their hands full with Lafleur’s offense this Saturday.

Defense

The Packers’ defense was average during the regular season, but they stepped up against the Cowboys. Led by one of the best CBs, Jaire Alexander, who had an INT, the Packers held the Cowboys to seven first-half points. Safety Darnell Savage had a 64-yard pick-six that gave the Packers a 27-0 lead with just under two minutes left in the half. The Packers first-half lead made the Cowboys one-dimensional, which played into the Packers' hands because they were not good against the run this year.

Green Bay ranks 29th in rushing yards against after first contact (906) and 23rd in yards allowed per rush (4.4). They will need to either get a lead or play better than what they have shown all year to slow down 49ers’ RB Christian McCaffrey this weekend. The 49ers are going to move the ball on Green Bay. The Packers' path to victory is to bend but not to break on defense. This means they can not give up the big play and hold the 49ers to field goals. They also need to get pressure on Purdy if they want to beat the 49ers. 

San Francisco 49ers

Everyone who follows the NFL understands that the 49ers have the best roster in football. They have All-Pro talent at every position group on offense and defense, along with one of the best coaches in the game. They rank third in both points for and points against, and they can play from behind or with a lead. They have no glaring holes as the clear favorite to win the NFC, which is why they are nearly 10-point favorites to beat the Packers.

Quarterback – Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy was the favorite to win the NFL’s MVP award heading into a Week 16 showdown with the Ravens. The Ravens' No. 1 defense exposed Purdy, who committed four interceptions in his worst game as a pro. But other than that game, Purdy was consistently one of the best QBs in the league this year. 

2022’s ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ has put the league on notice with his poise and accuracy. He has complete control of Shanahan’s offense, which is one of the best at scheming players open. Purdy finished the year with 4,280 yards and 31 TDs with a completion percentage of 69.4 – all top five in the league. His passer rating of 113 was far above second-place Dak Prescott’s 105.9. 

Although it’s only Purdy’s second season in the NFL, he is no stranger to playoff success. Purdy was red hot during last year's playoffs, winning two games before injuring his elbow, which knocked him out of the NFC Championship game against the Eagles. I am sure he and the rest of the team are ready to take it a step further and will not be satisfied unless they win the Super 

Bowl.

Offense

Although Purdy has some of the best numbers for a QB in the league, the 49ers run through Christian McCaffrey. The do-it-all running back is the key to the 49ers success. One of the best dual-threat RBs the NFL has ever seen is the perfect weapon in Shanahan’s offense. They get him the ball and allow him to attack the defense from every angle. McCaffrey led the league with 2,023 total yards and 21 total TDs this season.

The 49ers offense is like a Lamborghini, and McCaffrey is the engine that makes it go. But there are a lot of other parts that make a Lamborghini better than the competition. Pass catchers Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are some of the best at their positions. All of the weapons are tough to stop because the offensive line is one of the best in the league, led by future Hall of Famer and one of the best ever, Trent Williams.

Defense

The old saying “the rich get richer” applied to the 49ers' top-ranked defense when they traded with the Commanders for DE Chase Young at the trade deadline. The 49ers, led by LB Fred Warner and DE Nick Bosa, have consistently been one of the best defenses in the league for the past few years. 

Their secondary is led by one of the league's best cover men, Charvarius Ward, who can shut down any receiver that lines up across from him. The 49ers are tough to run on and are great at coverage and getting to the QB. The Packers will need to play a perfect game on offense to score on the 49ers consistently.

Prediction: 49ers 31 - Packers 20

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (3) Detroit Lions 

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC)

Opening line: DET -6 (48.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have won six out of their last seven, including a 32-9 victory over last year’s NFC champs. They controlled the game from the opening drive and never looked back. If they can beat the Eagles, they can beat anyone. 

Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield is on a redemption path, proving all his doubters wrong by winning the NFC South and destroying the Eagles on Monday night. Mayfield seemed to be on his way to a backup role in the NFL because three teams in two years gave up on him before he landed with the Bucs this season on a prove-it deal. The Buccaneers are an experienced bunch, and although Tom Brady is gone, many of the teammates who joined him in those playoff appearances remain.

Quarterback - Baker Mayfield

Mayfield has been the key to the Bucs' success this season. The former first-overall pick threw for over 4,000 yards and had 28 TDs on the year. He came into the season with a lot to prove, which he has done admirably this season, and he is not slowing down now. He just torched the Eagles' defense for 337 yards and three TDs.

The Buccaneers are one-dimensional, as they ranked dead last in rushing yards per game this season. The weird thing about that is they do try to run the ball, and they are very good at using their RB Rashaad White, in the passing game. The Bucs match up well against Detroit because the Lions' run defense is solid; pass defense is where they struggle.

Offense:

The Bucs offense has run through All-Pro WR Mike Evans for ten years now, and alongside him is an excellent second option in Chris Godwin. Evans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Hall of Fame-bound wide receiver, is the first player in NFL history to begin his career with 10 consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

Although Evans and Godwin accounted for over half of Mayfield's yards this season, the Bucs offense has a lot of weapons. Nine different receivers caught a pass in the win over the Eagles. If Mayfield takes care of the ball, he has all the weapons to pick apart any defense, especially the porous Lions' secondary.

Defense:

The Bucs defense is full of veterans who are no strangers to the playoffs. Their bread-and-butter all season was the blitz. The Bucs blitzed on 40% of opponent dropbacks in the regular season – third-most in the league. The Eagles could not handle the blitzes all night, which is why they only scored nine points. 

The Lions will certainly be expecting the blitz, but Goff's QBR dropped from 11th overall to 15th when facing the blitz. The Lions differ from the Eagles because they are dead-set on running the ball with their two very good backs. And one way to beat the blitz is to run right by it. 

Detroit Lions

It’s hard not to root for the Lions. They are led by coach Dan Campbell, who is always entertaining and passionate, and his team is an excellent reflection of him. They have been terrible for so long that it is fun to see Detroit finally get to celebrate a team they love. And even when they were bad, they always seemed to have some of the best offensive talents in the league (Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson), and this team is no different with stars like Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta.

For the first time in franchise history, the Lions will host a second playoff game, and if they win, it would be the first time they have won multiple games in the playoffs since their championship run in 1957. The Lions played a complete game on Sunday night and look like the team with the best chance to take down the 49ers, but first, they need to handle the red-hot Buccaneers.

Quarterback – Jared Goff

Jared Goff was selected No. 1 overall in 2016, and although he didn't win at first, he continued to get better with the Rams. By his third season in the NFL, he led the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl. Then, two years later, the Rams gave up on him and traded him to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Since coming over to the Lions, he has continually made his team better in the last three seasons. 

Goff threw for 4,575 and 30 TDs this season, averaging the second most yards per game. He can make all the throws and takes care of the ball well, as he set the Lions franchise record for most consecutive passes without an interception with 324. Goff is not flashy, but he is an excellent reflection of his coach and team – willing to do whatever it takes to win.

Offense:

The Lions have one of the best offenses in the league, averaging 27.4 points per game, which was fifth-best. They averaged the second most passing yards a game and fifth most rushing yards per game as well. They want to run the ball first with David Montgomery, change it up with Gibbs, and let Goff use play action to find St. Brown and his other weapons. They are built for the playoffs, with one of the best rushing attacks and a quarterback who can handle the pressure and bring his team back if they do fall behind.

Gibbs and LaPorta are two of the best rookies this year, and I expect them to impact the divisional round significantly. They are critical to the Lions beating the Bucs' blitz, and I expect Gibbs to have a huge day. If the Lions' two sensational rookies have big days, the Lions are going to cruise to the conference championship.

Defense:

The Lions have never had a good defense in my lifetime, but this version is good enough to win playoff games. The Rams came to town with one of the best offenses in the league, and they were held to 23 points last week. The Lions bent but did not break, forcing the Rams to settle for three field goals under 30 yards. If the Lions can keep their opponents out of the endzone once they get to the red zone, they can win the Super Bowl.

DE Aidan Hutchinson has been good all year, but he has taken his game to another level. He has been an enormous difference-maker down the stretch and is on a three-game multiple-sack streak. There aren’t many other high-profile names on the Lions' defense, but they look to be up to the challenge and are gelling at the right time. 

Prediction: Lions 27 - Bucs 24

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