A fight card flush with competitive and compelling fights, capped by a pair of championship battles where one of the competitors is facing a series of questions that can only be answered once they step into the Octagon touches down in Las Vegas as UFC 285 hits T-Mobile Arena on Saturday night.
It’s the best card of the year by a country mile, and it’s closed out by the highly anticipated heavyweight debut of Jon “Bones” Jones, as he takes on former interim titleholder Ciryl Gane in a clash for the vacant heavyweight strap.
If I wrote about every element of this card that is intriguing, we’d be here for days, so here’s a condensed look at who and what to watch out for at UFC 285 this weekend.
FIGHTER TO WATCH: BO NICKAL
Nickal is one of the most decorated collegiate wrestlers to compete in the Octagon.
A three-time National champion and four-time All-American at Penn State, he’s looked at home in the cage thus far, earning three straight first-round wins to land opposite Jamie Pickett in his UFC debut, which serves as the main card opener.
Because of his wrestling pedigree and the flashes of a submission game that he’s shown, some people are sky-high on Nickal as a prospect. I’m not as all-in as some folks. For starters, he’s 27 years old, which is a little older to be starting out in MMA, and while he’s looked great, he’s done so against weekend warriors, not genuine UFC talent.
Nickal will probably roll because Pickett is 2-4 in the UFC, has lost two straight by stoppage, and isn’t someone that is going to be on the UFC roster much longer. But in terms of his long-term potential, it’s all going to come down to how quickly the UFC looks to move Nickal up the divisional ladder, how he handles getting cracked, and what happens when someone can shut down his wrestling.
He will have some success, without question, but it remains to be seen if he’s the future contender some are already projecting him to be despite the fact that he’s yet to set foot in the Octagon for the first time.
FIGHTER TO WATCH: JALIN TURNER
Last week, I wrote about how Ryan Spann looks like he might be starting to put all the pieces together in the light heavyweight division. Turner is someone showing the same signs in the lightweight ranks, and this weekend, “The Tarantula” takes on Mateusz Gamrot in a fight that will show whether that is the case.
The 27-year-old enters on a five-fight winning streak, having earned stoppages in each of those conquests, and all 13 of his career victories. He has tremendous height and reach for the division, and seems to be figuring out how to play to those strengths, having stopped his last opponent Brad Riddell by choking him out after knocking him down with a long-range strike.
Gamrot is a Top 10 stalwart with more than 30 fights to his name, tremendous grappling acumen, and sound enough striking to keep anyone honest. While he’s giving up plenty of height and reach, he’s savvy enough to deal with those things if Turner isn’t as sharp as he’s been in recent outings.
This is a tough, tough assignment for Turner, who was originally scheduled to face Dan Hooker, but it’s a chance for the ascending lightweight from California to earn the biggest win of his career and keep moving forward in the lightweight ranks, and I think there is a real chance he does that this weekend.
FIGHTER TO WATCH: SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV
Rakhmonov is 4-0 in the UFC with four finishes, and a stellar 16-0 with 16 finishes for his career. The 28-year-old “Nomad” is one of the most impressive rising stars on the UFC roster, and Saturday night, he faces off with Top 10 welterweight Geoff Neal in his biggest fight to date.
This is the right “next step” for Rakhmonov, who submitted Neil Magny in his second appearance of 2022, and yet it feels like most people expect it to be a one-sided affair, which speaks to both how good Rakhmonov is and, honestly, how much folks continue to sleep on Neal.
What should be the difference-maker in this fight is Rakhmonov’s ability to fight in all phases, so that if things get a little dicey on the feet, he can get inside and work to take this to the canvas, where he should have a considerable edge over Neal.
It’s a competitive and fascinating matchup because the winner is going to be looking at a major assignment in the back half of the year, but if Rakhmonov runs through Neal with ease, he could start taking on some of that “inevitable that he eventually wins gold” sheen that Islam Makhachevcarried before he ascended to the lightweight throne last year.
Yes, he’s that good.
FLYWEIGHT TITLE FIGHT: VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO (C) VS. ALEXA GRASSO
With all due respect to Grasso, who has gone 4-0 since moving to flyweight and looked good in earning her way to this championship opportunity, everything about this fight comes down to how Shevchenko looks.
Last time out, “Bullet” ran into more trouble than she had in the past, squeaking out a split decision win over TailaSantos at UFC 275 last summer in a fight that seemed to turn on an accidental clash of heads.
Was it a case of the long-reigning champion having an off night and nearly paying for it by losing her title or has the tenured titleholder and life-long martial artist finding fading back to the pack a little?
If last summer was an aberration, Shevchenko rolls, declares she’s ready to face whoever wants to be next --Manon Fiorot or Erin Blanchfield are the most obvious choices -- and no one questions whether she’s slipping again.
If it wasn’t, this could get a little interesting and the flyweight division will climb to the top of the list of the most intriguing divisions in the UFC.
HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE FIGHT: JON JONES VS. CIRYL GANE
I detailed the myriad questions that hover around Jon Jones heading into this one on Wednesday -- please go check that out -- so let’s keep this focused on the fight itself.
Gane is one of those athletes that would have been outstanding at whatever he set his mind to, and fortunately for fight fans, that ended up being MMA. He moves like a middleweight, hits like a ton of bricks, and isn’t someone that is going to get caught up in the hype or the excitement of things, which makes him even more dangerous.
Jones is one of the greatest talents this sport has ever seen, and if he’s 75% of the fighter he was during his light heavyweight reign, he has the skill and know-how to win this fight in a route.
But heavyweight is different.
Sometimes at heavyweight, the best fighter doesn’t win because the other guy hits harder or lands first, and while Jones may have the sterling resume (inside the Octagon), he’s been out of action for three years and is departing the weight class he dominated for years for more dangerous waters.
This matchup is utterly fascinating and I cannot wait to see how it plays out Friday night in Las Vegas.
