The winner of Saturday’s main event clash between Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo at the UFC APEX should be no worse than one more win away from challenging for the flyweight title.
Suggesting that the winner of a bout between the Nos. 5 and 6 ranked fighters in a given division need at maximum one additional victory in order to earn the opportunity to fight for championship gold doesn’t sound like a wild proposition.
But with the way title fights have been booked in recent years and the extended path different contenders have been forced to travel in order to potentially secure a title opportunity, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if this weekend’s main event winner ended up being two or three additional triumphs away from fighting for the belt, and that is problematic.
The Case for Contention
Everything starts with Valentina Shevchenko’s dominance since ascending to the flyweight throne.
A perfect 9-0 in the 125-pound weight class, the current champion has already posted victories over the four fighters stationed ahead of Grasso and Araujo in the rankings — Katlyn Chookagian, Taila Santos, Lauren Murphy, and Jessica Andrade — as well as Jennifer Maia, who sits at No. 8 in the pecking order at the moment.
Grasso is 3-0 since moving to the flyweight division, boasting wins over prospect Maycee Barber and Top 10 fixture Joanne Wood, while Araujo enters having won three of her last four, most recently rebounding from her loss to Chookagian with a dominant decision win over Andrea Lee.
Depending on how things shake out this weekend, either Grasso comes away with a fourth straight flyweight win and second straight victory over a Top 10 opponent or Araujo halts her winning streak while tallying her second win over a Top 10 opponent in 2022. In terms of being the “next woman up,” whomever is victorious on Saturday night in Las Vegas would claim pole position in that particular race, but it’s not as cut-and-dry as that when it comes to sorted out who is next.
Muddied Waters
The first barrier to simply declaring the Grasso-Araujo winner next in line is that Chookagian has a critical matchup with surging French competitor Manon Fiorotnext weekend in Abu Dhabi at UFC 280, and you can be sure the winner of that one is getting on the mic post-fight and calling for a title shot.
Chookagian has won four straight, including beating Araujo, and five of six since her lopsided title fight loss to Shevchenko. Turning back Fiorot would put her on a five-fight winning streak, and while her fight with the champion wasn’t competitive, the overall quality of her victorious would top what either Grasso or Araujo could hold up in comparison.
And Fiorot would instantly jump to the head of the line by defeating Chookagian, who is widely accepted as the best fighter in the division beyond the champion and has the receipts to prove it. Over the last four years, the 33-year-old “Blonde Fighter” has gone 7-2, losing only to Shevchenko and former strawweight queen Jessica Andrade, so a win for the 9-1 French striker would put her in exclusive, elite company.
Further complicating things is that these two fights being on the books makes it look more likely that Shevchenko will end up running things back with Santos in her next title defense.
The Brazilian is the lone fighter amongst the champion’s slate of opponents at flyweights to push her inside the Octagon. She used her size and physicality to wrestle and grapple well in the in the opening stages of their fight at UFC 275 in Singapore over the summer before an accidental clash of heads provided the opening Shevchenko needed to build momentum and retain her title.
Shevchenko eked out a split decision, and with it looking more and more likely that the promotion is going to run back the main event of that show in Singapore, pitting Jiri Prochazka and Glover Teixeira against one another again, with the light heavyweight strap once again hanging in the balance, it’s feasible that Shevchenko and Santos are booked alongside of them as well.
There is also an outside possibility that Shevchenko opts to return to bantamweight and challenge Amanda Nunes for the title once again, renewing their rivalry. The duo has had a pair of close fights, neither has an opponent lined up at the moment, and perhaps Nunes’ loss to Julianna Pena last year feels like the slight step back Shevchenko needed to see in order to pursue one more bout against “The Lioness.”
If either of those fights come together in the next , the winner of Saturday’s headlining tilt will most assuredly need at least one more win in order to maintain her place in line to challenge for the title in the future.
Further Complications
What makes things more difficult to forecast is the fact that the UFC has a penchant for hustle former champions and recent title challengers back into championship opportunities far more readily than they elevate competitors that have put together extended winning streaks and worked their way into the title mix.
That’s a little more difficult to do in the flyweight division because Shevchenko has held the title since December 2018 and only Santos was able to give her any kind of challenge, but it does mean that fighters like Chookagianand Murphy and Andrade, should she opt to return to the 125-pound ranks, all potentially stand in the way of Grasso or Araujo, despite having recently been dispatched by the champion.
It happens across most divisions (as chronicled here in the past), but it really does complicate things, especially for aspiring title challengers that haven’t gotten to fight for gold in the past because recent challengers and former champions are no longer required to work their way all the way back into the mix like they had been in previous eras.
Take Murphy for example:
After getting absolutely dominated by Shevchenko last September, her return to action came against former bantamweight champ Miesha Tate in her divisional debut. In a somewhat surprising effort, Murphy dominated Tate from the outset, earning a unanimous decision win that keeps her stationed in the Top 3, and likely standing between either Grasso or Araujo and a title shot.
The Hardest Part
And here’s the real rub: up until this point, flyweight was the one division where the next contender in line was consistently getting their opportunity to fight for the title.
Because of Shevchenko’s dominance and desire to stay active, a new contender needed to be circled into the championship mix every 6-9 months, resulting in the aforementioned collection of contenders getting a chance to fight for the title over the last three years.
But now it feels like flyweight is going the way of nearly every other division in the UFC, making the road to a championship opportunity longer for those that have never been there, and giving bigger, more established names priority when it comes to championship pairings or fights with potential title ramifications.
Grasso and Araujo deserve better, and so do their contemporaries in other divisions, like Marina Rodriguez, Magomed Ankalaev, Belal Muhammad, and BenielDariush.
A dominant victory on Saturday night should be enough to put Grasso or Araujo in a championship fight next time out.
Unfortunately, it’s more likely that the winner will have to win two more bouts before challenging for championship gold than compete in a title fight next time out, and that’s a recurring problem that the UFC needs to address some time soon.
