There is nothing worse than feeling trapped.

No exit. No way forward. No way back. Just the frustrating realization of being stuck in some place that you do not want to be.

Which brings us to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

After a week in Sweden as part of the NHL’s Global Series along with the Minnesota Wild, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators, the Leafs returned to the Centre of the Hockey Universe with two wins, four points, and the same problems that have plagued the organization for years.

You’ve heard of Groundhog Day? Call them Groundhog Franchise.

The Leafs are being carried by their stars. Again.

The Leafs are structurally flawed. Again.

Can those employed as players and coaches and executives solve what ails the Leafs before another disappointing playoff flameout? That remains to be seen.

The Leafs, who do not play again until Friday when they visit wunderkind Connor Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks, have a strong foundation in the persons of William Nylander, Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly.

Nylander, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, has gotten his contract drive off to a marvelous start as he leads the team with 27 points in 17 games, including a dazzling end-to-end rush in overtime Sunday that culminated with the game-winning goal in the Leafs’ 4-3 win.

His play has not gone unnoticed by his teammates.

“I went to an (National Hockey League Players’ Association) dinner with him Thursday night and then he did something the next day,” said Reilly, according to the Toronto Star. “I felt like I needed to have some time off. But he just kept going and played outstanding. He understood the magnitude of the trip and the games. I don’t think he was putting pressure on himself but he likes to play well in big moments. This trip and these games are a good example of that.”

 

Nylander, the son of former NHLer Michael Nylander, has not been a one-man show. Auston Matthews leads the Leafs with 14 goals and his 21 points are second-most on the team. They are followed by Mitch Marner (20 points), John Tavares (19 points), and Rielly (15 points).

Normally, that would be cause for celebration. However, the quintet accounts for $47.94 million of Toronto’s $84 million cap number (to be clear, the Leafs have another $12 million in salary on LTIR, so they have $96 million in player salary outlay). Which leaves exactly $36.06 million to fill out the rest of the Leafs’ 22-player roster.

You see the problem. Money is tight.

And to be clear, this is not solely an example of former general manager Kyle Dubas and current GM Brad Treliving spending wildly without considering the rest of the roster. The Leafs, like the rest of the league, were hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

When the NHL shut down in March 2020, it and its teams lost out on the gate revenues from the final three weeks of the season and playoffs. Plus, when the league resumed play that summer, it created bubbles in Toronto and Edmonton, which meant the teams were limited to hotels and rinks, and paid for daily testing.

The next season, the league played games in front of limited-to-no crowds, similar to the NFL, Major League Baseball, and National Basketball Association. Unlike those leagues, the NHL’s primary source of revenue comes from ticket sales.

As such, that revenue is factored into the league’s hockey related revenue number, which in part is a guidepost when the NHL and NHLPA negotiate the yearly salary cap ceiling, mid-point, and floor.

Which meant the league incurred COVID-19 created debt that it believes will be fully paid off before this off-season. While that is a positive for Nylander, who is likely to receive mammoth offers, it caused the league to have a flat cap for four seasons.

And a flat salary cap meant it was hard for executives to engage in the kind of off-season shopping spree to improve their teams. For the Leafs, the issues have been strengthening their bottom-six forwards and defense corps and goaltending.

All of which have hurt the Leafs over the last few seasons, including the current one. 

Treliving added power forwards Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi in free agency, and brought in puck-moving defenseman John Klingberg to add quality depth.

It hasn’t exactly worked out. Domi has recorded only nine points in 17 games, all on assists. Bertuzzi has disappointed with four goals and four assists for eight points, while not seeming to develop any on-ice chemistry with the top two lines.

Klingberg has become something of a whipping boy due to his willingness to take risks, his reputation as being not the strongest defender, and lack of production. The veteran defenseman has five points this season. 

And now, he has physically hit “rock bottom” due to nagging injuries. Klingberg told Sportsnet’s Luke Fox in Sweden that nagging injuries have caused him to feel “very stiff, a little bit of pain, not a lot of motion.” According to Fox, Klingberg has suffered from “hamstring and mobility issues” following double hip surgery in 2014.

And according to head coach Sheldon Keefe, there is a concern that Klingberg’s injuries could cause the defenseman to miss an extended period of time.

“It’s certainly getting to that place,” Keefe said about Klingberg following Saturday’s practice in Sweden. According to reports, Klingberg could participate for only five minutes before leaving. 

So, no, it’s not great. 

And it becomes quite a conundrum when there isn’t enough money available to make deals at the trade deadline. According to industry website CapFriendly, the Leafs–as of this writing–will have only $59,999 in available space at the trade deadline. 

So unless Treliving is able to get creative, there won’t be many changes to a team whose 10-5-2 record and 22 points are third-most in the Atlantic Division, six behind first-place Boston (28 points) and one point behind second-place Florida (23 points), and two points ahead of Tampa Bay (20 points).

But Florida is soon to get back defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour–possibly as soon as this week–and Tampa should likely have Andrei Vasilevskiy return in December. All three had off-season surgeries.

So, then, the questions become: Are the Leafs good enough, as currently constructed, to win a Stanley Cup? Are they good enough to reach the Eastern Conference Final? Are they good enough to win a playoff round? Are they good enough to qualify for the playoffs?

Because, for all of their failings, the Leafs have reached the playoffs for seven straight years, and last spring advanced to the second round for the first time since 2003-04. Losing in the first or second round would be a disappointment. But not making the playoffs at all would be disastrous.  

 

And the ensuing fallout could be massive. 

But it could free the Leafs from the trap that they are in.