The first quarter of the NFL season is in the books, and there have been plenty of surprises and reminders. Just like in a game, the first quarter of the season provides plenty of information on what direction a team is going. And just like in a game, many adjustments will be made after the first quarter of play.
The NFL continues to prove that the difference between a winning and losing season is literally inches. A few bad plays and the ball bouncing the wrong way is all it takes for one team with high hopes to fall behind quickly in the playoff race. The 2022 season thus far has not only surprised us in many ways, but it also has reminded us of some of the things that fans may have forgotten or overlooked in the offseason.
What are some of the things that the first four games of the season have reminded us of? What are some of the new lessons we are learning in 2022?
Three Things We Were Reminded of in the AFC
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are still the team to beat in the AFC West
The Chiefs are off to another good start, sitting in first place of the AFC West at 3-1. Mahomes ranks second in passer rating (108.4) with 1106YDs/11TDs/2INTs. Kansas City smacked the Cardinals 44-21 in Week 1 and followed that up with a close victory over their division rivals, the Los Angeles Chargers, in Week 2. After a sloppy loss to the Colts in Week 3, they returned to form to dominate the Bucs 41-31 on Sunday night. The AFC West was the most improved division this offseason as everyone went out and spent money on big-name free agents. Everyone except for the Chiefs.
The loss of Tyreek Hill had many people wondering if the Chiefs could still be the top dog in the improved West. Four weeks in, and we have all been reminded of Patrick Mahomes' greatness. The former Super Bowl MVP is a master at winning games under one of the greatest coaches – Andy Reid.
Don't get it twisted Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the World! 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/451JgPhTkc
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) October 3, 2022
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is a game-changer and deserved the four-year contract extension worth $120 million.
Tyreek Hill has continued to prove that he is a generational talent that is practically unstoppable. His league-leading 477 receiving yards have helped the Dolphins to a 3-1 record. The Dolphins sent the Chiefs five draft picks to acquire Hill’s services, which at the time seemed like a lot for a receiver. But if a receiver is worth that much future capital, it is Hill.
QB Tua Tagovailoa has been able to use both his speedy receivers Hill and Jaylen Waddle effectively this season, which is why he leads the league with a 109.9 passer rating. Tagovailoa is set to miss some time due to a concussion. How the Dolphins have handled Tua’sconcussion has sparked a huge debate on whether he should have been playing on TNF after a hit he took on Sunday the week before. The Dolphins, under coach Mike McDaniel, look like a real competitor in the AFC, even with backup QB Teddy Bridgewater under center. A big reason why they will succeed with Bridgewater is that Tyreek Hill is just that good.
Lamar Jackson is the first-quarter MVP, but he struggles to win big games.
Lamar Jackson is putting together another MVP-caliber season, but the Ravens currently sit at 2-2. Jackson is the clear favorite to score the most fantasy points this season because he is a top-10 QB and top-10 RB wrapped up in one. He continues to dazzle fans with big runs where he leaves defenders in his dust and efficient play with his arm.
The Ravens have given up two fourth-quarter leads that resulted in close losses to the Dolphins and Bills. We are all witnesses to Jackson’s unbelievable athleticism, but if he wants to be mentioned as elite, he needs to find ways to put teams away in the fourth quarter. Obviously, it is not all his fault, and the Ravens' defense needs to be better late.
Two New Things We Learned in the AFC
The Jacksonville Jaguars have the pieces to compete for a Division Title.
Free from the tyranny of coach Urban Meyer, the Jaguars find themselves atop their division with a 2-2 record. The Jaguars finished as the NFL’s worst team the past two seasons, and their last winning season was in 2017. They have quickly turned things around, and it does not seem like a fluke. Losing one-score games to the Eagles and the Commanders and winning in blowout fashion over the Colts and the Chargers.
The Jaguars’ defense is a big part of their success, giving up 16.8 pts/gm, which is fourth least in the NFL. The unit held the Chargers’ high-powered offense to 10 points and shut out the Colts' struggling offense. Former No. 1 overall pick QB Trevor Lawrence is making a huge second-year leap and is playing with confidence. Behind a well-balanced attack, they are averaging 26.3 pts/gm, which ranks sixth. The Jaguars’ +38 in net points is by far the largest of any 2-2 team and third most in the NFL (behind the Bills and Eagles). The AFC South is one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, and the Jaguars have a real shot at winning it.
The AFC North could struggle to produce two playoff teams.
One of my predictions from the preseason is that only one team would make it out of the AFC North because they would all practically split with each other. There are three teams in the division that have Super Bowl aspirations, and they all currently sit at 2-2. The Browns, Bengals and Ravens have yet to play each other, but I do not expect one team to dominate the other two. That being said, I think all three of those teams mentioned will end the season right above .500.
The AFC North race will come down to the wire, and one team must end up on top, but not before they all beat up each other. The Browns wasted their opportunity to be ahead at this point by losing to the Jets and Falcons. The Bengals started the year with two losses to the Steelers and Cowboys but seem to be turning things around. The Ravens’ two losses are against the Bills and Dolphins, which are not bad losses, but they gave the games away late.
Two Things We Were Reminded of in the NFC
The NFC West is the toughest division in the NFC.
After four weeks of football, all four teams in the NFC West are sitting at 2-2. Many people expected the defending Super Bowl champion Rams to handle this division again this year and the Seahawks to be one of the worst teams in the conference. Think again.
The Rams do not look like the same team from a year ago. They cannot find any rhythm on offense and are dealing with injuries on defense. The Seahawks are the biggest surprise in the division as they are proving that they are not in a rebuild and can win without Russell Wilson. The 49ers and the Cardinals are following very similar storylines from last season. The 49ers have one of the best defenses and once again are dealing with a ton of injuries. The Cardinals are one of the toughest teams to predict from one week to the next.
The entire NFC West is 2-2. pic.twitter.com/Q8WRbIGcT5
— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2022
Detroit is much improved, but they are still the Lions.
To be more specific, the Lions' offense has improved. Detroit has the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 35 points/game. With talent everywhere on the offensive side of the ball, the Lions continue to put up points with Jared Goff at QB. But since I can remember, the problem in Detroit has never been a lack of scoring. It has and continues to be the defense.
Detroit ranks last in points allowed, giving up 35.3 points/game. That's a difference of .3 points/game that they are losing by. The Lions have a -1 net points ratio and somehow are 1-3. I do expect the Lions to bounce back and win some of the close shootouts that they find themselves continually in. But until their defense gets better, they will not be able to compete for a playoff spot.
Detroit Lions 2022, you can’t even make this shit up 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/Wrc9rsdQWz
— 〽️att Hartwell (@MaizeCrusader) October 4, 2022
Three New Things We Learned in the NFC
The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC and will finish as the No. 1 seed.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the last unbeaten team in the NFL. Their record would suggest they are the best team in the NFL, which may be a bit of a stretch, but they do pass the eye test as the best team in the NFC. Their offense, led by third-year star-QB Jalen Hurts, is one of the most well-balanced offenses in the league. WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are one of the best receiving duos in the league. Add in RB Miles Sanders, and Hurts has some of the best weapons at his disposal.
The Eagles do look good, but they are yet to play a team that had a winning record last season. Their next two contests against the Cardinals and Cowboys will be a great measure of how good they actually are. Looking at the Eagles’ remaining schedule, I expect them to continue their winning ways. They only have to face four teams that made the playoffs last season. Two of those games are against the struggling Steelers and Titans.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers do not look the same without Davante Adams.
The Packers are 3-1, but it has not been pretty. The Packers are proving they are still one of the best teams in the NFC by finding ways to win. Good teams find ways to win, but everyone, including their reigning MVP QB, knows they need to be better. They needed every second of OT to knock off the 1-3 Patriots, who were playing with third-string QB Bailey Zappe.
“'This way of winning, I don't think, is sustainable,” Aaron Rodgers was quoted saying after their Week 4 win. The Packers' defense is elite and is currently ranked seventh, only giving up 17.3 pts/gm. The offense is struggling, and Rodgers knows he needs to play better. The Packers went into the locker room trailing 10-7 to the Patriots at the half. Rodgers had the lowest passer rating (11.2) of any half in any of the 210 games he has started.
Rodgers made Davante Adams better by delivering the ball with precision and timing. Adams made Rodgers' life easier because the future Hall-of-Fame QB could rely on Adams to get separation. Now without Adams, No. 12 has to adapt and find who, if any, of his receivers have won their one-on-one battles. The Packers have plenty of football left to get better offensively, and I think Rodgers and the offense will do so. But right now, they look like they are severely missing Adams.
The Cowboys do not need Dak Prescott to win games; their defense can carry them.
The Cowboys have only given up one touchdown in each of the four games they have played, averaging 15.5 pts/gm against them – third least in the NFL. That is incredible when you take into account that they are allowing over 137 rushing yards per game. The defense has bent but not broken in the first quarter of the season. Everyone in Dallas knows they need to do better at stopping the run if they want to beat the Eagles and win their division.
Prescott went down with a thumb injury in the Cowboys’ 19-3 loss to the Bucs in Week 1. Since that game, backup QB Cooper Rush has won all three of his starts with solid play. Rush has not tried to do too much, managing the games well, and letting his defense do the heavy lifting. There could be some controversy brewing if Rush moves to 4-0 with a win over the Rams this week and Prescott returns in Week 6 and struggles against the Eagles.
That defense tho 🔥@49ers x @dallascowboys pic.twitter.com/ULDR7njfMl
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 4, 2022
