The Major League Soccer regular season has come down to two final weeks and there’s still so much to be decided before Decision Day closes on Oct. 9.
There are only three playoff spots in both the Eastern and Western conferences clinched and just seven teams eliminated from contention.
That means 15 other teams are still alive for the remaining eight berths and there’s still coveted home playoff games left to be decided. How close is the race? How about four points separating teams 7-11 in the east and four points from 4-8 in the west.
Yes, it will be a chaotic sprint to the end of the regular season. And who doesn’t love chaos?
Here’s a look at the playoff picture in both the East and the West
Eastern Conference
Clinched: Philadelphia Union, CF Montreal, New York Red Bulls
Eliminated: Chicago Fire, Toronto FC, D.C. United
No. 4 New York City FC (14-11-7, 49 points)
Remaining games: 10/2 vs. Orlando City SC; 10/9 at Atlanta United
The defending MLS Cup champions were spiraling out of control for much of the summer, winning just once in a 10-game stretch that spanned from July 30 to Sept. 10. During that time, which saw the departure of Golden Boot winner Taty Castellanos (transferred to Girona), head coach Ronny Deila (to Standard Liege) and injuries to key cogs Alexander Callens and Keaton Parks, NYCFC went from a Supporters’ Shield contender to perilously close to losing a home playoff game or even missing the postseason altogether.
But the Cityzens got healthy and seemingly regained their mojo after beating Mexico’s Atlas FC to win the Campeones Cup at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 14. They rode that momentum to a massive 2-0 win over the rival Red Bulls in the Bronx three days later, sweeping the Hudson River Derby.
NYCFC are one point behind the third-place Red Bulls and perhaps more importantly, four points clear of Orlando City SC for that fourth and final home playoff spot in the East, which sets up a massive game against the Lions at Red Bull Arena on Oct. 2.
No. 5 Orlando City SC (13-12-6, 45 points)
Remaining games: 10/2 at NYCFC; 10/5 at Inter Miami; 10/9 vs. Columbus Crew
Orlando City are already champions — having won their first trophy by defeating Sacramento Republic to win the US Open Cup on Sept. 7.
There was a bit of a hangover from that win with consecutive losses to Philadelphia and Atlanta before righting the ship in a big way, blasting Toronto FC, 4-0, and eliminating Bob Bradley’s squad from playoff contention.
It’s been a strange season in central Florida with the Lions at times looking like a championship team and others like a side that would miss the postseason altogether.
The advantage, perhaps, Oscar Pareja’s squad has that game in hand on NYCFC as they try to secure that home playoff game. Not that, at 8-8 this season, they’ve been world beaters at Exploria Stadium.
No. 6 FC Cincinnati (11-8-12, 45 points)
Remaining games: 9/27 at Seattle Sounders; 10/1 vs. Chicago Fire; 10/9 at D.C. United
FC Cincinnati has been one of the feel-good stories of the MLS season. After their first three seasons in MLS finishing at the bottom of the league table, FC Cincinnati are on the verge of a first-ever trip to the MLS Cup playoffs.
General manager Chris Albright and head coach Pat Noonan have come from the Philadelphia Union and have changed the culture in their first season in the Queen City.
A key to the turnaround has been the attacking trio of Brandon Vazquez, Brenner and Lucho Acosta.
Vazquez, who is among the leading scorers in MLS with 16 goals and five assists, is enjoying a career year that had him in the conversation for a call-up to the US men’s national team during the September window.
Brenner has 14 goals and five assists and Acosta has been the playmaker with eight goals and a league-high 18 assists.
No team in MLS has been hotter down the stretch, with FC Cincinnati having lost just once since June, though 11 of those 17 games have been draws.
No. 7 Inter Miami CF (13-13-6, 42 points)
Remaining games: 9/30 at Toronto FC; 10/5 vs. Orlando City SC; 10/9 vs. CF Montreal
Inter Miami occupy the seventh and final playoff spot in the East, though they’re even on points with the eighth-place Columbus Crew and two points clear of Atlanta United.
That the Herons are even in this position is remarkable considering the almost complete rebuild of the roster after an 11th-place finish in the East a year ago.
Led by Argentine legend Gonzalo Higuain, who has five goals in his team’s last three games, Miami have won their last two games, which came after three straight losses which seemed to all but bury them.
Clearly, the job’s not done with fellow playoff contenders Orlando and Montreal on the horizon after a trip to Toronto.
No. 8 Columbus Crew (9-7-15, 42 points)
Remaining games: 10/1 vs. New York Red Bulls; 10/5 at Charlotte FC; 10/9 at Orlando City SC
Columbus are just below the playoff line and if they miss the postseason for a second straight season after winning MLS Cup in 2020, it will largely be self-inflicted.
The Crew have won just three games in their last 13 and in their last two games — a 2-1 loss at Miami and a 1-1 draw against Portland — Columbus conceded late.
Columbus have conceded 15 goals this season while leading or tied after the 75th minute, the most damning evidence Caleb Porter’s side has failed to close out games.
All three of their final regular season opponents — the Red Bulls, Charlotte and Orlando — are still alive for the playoffs, which means the playoff road will not be easy.
No. 9 Atlanta United (10-12-10, 40 points)
Remaining games: 10/1 at New England Revolution; 10/9 vs. NYCFC
Like Miami, Atlanta are a team that appeared dead and buried a few weeks back — back-to-back losses to Philadelphia and Portland at the end of a stretch that saw the Five Stripes win just twice in a 10-match stretch.
There was also internal strife, with star striker Josef Martinez suspended for a game due to conduct detrimental (he reportedly overturned a post-match spread of chicken and rice and got into a heated exchange with head coach Gonzalo Pineda).
There’s a glimmer of hope though following three straight matches without a loss — wins over Toronto FC and Orlando and a draw against Philadelphia.
They head to a New England team that are all but officially eliminated before hosting NYCFC on Decision Day. However, all the teams in the mix with Atlanta have a game in hand.
No. 10 Charlotte FC (12-17-2, 38 points)
Remaining games: 10/1 vs. Philadelphia Union; 10/5 vs. Columbus Crew; 10/9 at New York Red Bulls
The expansion team face a daunting final three games, taking on two of the East’s top three teams in the Union and Red Bulls with a desperate Crew team sandwiched between in their final home game of the season.
Charlotte are on the brink of elimination, but have won their last two games and a strong finish to their first season should only bode well for the 2023 season.
No. 11 New England Revolution (9-12-11, 38 points)
Remaining games: 10/1 vs. Atlanta United; 10/9 at Chicago Fire
It’s been a stunning reversal for the Revolution, who went from setting an MLS record for points in a regular season en route to winning their first-ever Supporters’ Shield title a year ago to missing the postseason altogether.
The Revs, who have been hampered by key injuries, have lost their last three games and are 1-5-2 in their last eight matches.
Western Conference
Clinched: LAFC, Austin FC, FC Dallas
Eliminated: Colorado Rapids, Sporting Kansas City, Houston Dynamo, San Jose Earthquakes
No. 4 Nashville SC (12-9-11, 47 points)
Remaining games: 10/2 vs. Houston Dynamo; 10/9 at LAFC
Nashville are unbeaten in their last six matches and are currently clinging to the fourth and final home playoff berth. A big part of the late-season surge has been the play of Hany Mukhtar, who has emerged as the favorite to win the MLS MVP award.
The German attacking midfielder leads the Golden Boot race with 23 goals on the season to go along with 11 assists. That includes 10 goals and three assists in the last seven games.
No. 5 LA Galaxy (13-12-7, 46 points)
Remaining games: 10/1 vs. Real Salt Lake; 10/9 at Houston Dynamo
Don’t look now, but here come the Galaxy. Fueled by back-to-back wins over the Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes, LA are 4-1-4 in their last nine games and have moved from below the playoff line to fifth place, just a point behind fourth-place Nashville.
Star striker Chicharito Hernandez has three goals in the last two wins, as does Gaston Brugman, who head coach Greg Vanney credits with stabilizing the midfield. And Riqui Puig has two goals and five assists in his eight matches since arriving from Barcelona.
Yes, the Galaxy are hot at the right time.
“The confidence has been building, now the execution has been a little bit better,” Vanney. Said following a 3-2 win at San Jose Saturday night. “And I still think there's another level for us to keep trying to get to as we push forward in these next couple of games.”
No. 6 Portland Timbers (11-8-13, 46 points)
Remaining games: 10/2 vs. LAFC; 10/9 at Real Salt Lake
Here we go again, it’s another late-season surge by the Portland Timbers, who rode a similar run a year ago to hosting MLS Cup where they lost to NYCFC on penalty kicks.
The Timbers are unbeaten in their last five (4-0-1), which started with a massive 2-1 win over archrival Seattle.
As a result, Portland are in sixth place in the West, level on points with the Galaxy with two games remaining.
But now isn’t the time to rest. There’s heavy lifting still left with a home game against an LAFC side trying to claim the Supporters’ Shield and a road tilt against an RSL side attempting to claw above the playoff line.
No. 7 Minnesota United (13-13-6, 45 points)
Remaining games: 10/1 at San Jose; 10/9 vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
A couple of months ago, it seemed unfathomable that Minnesota United would be in a fight for their playoff lives with two games remaining in the regular season. In fact, it appeared the Loons were a lock for a home playoff game.
But key injuries — a season-ending injury to starting defender Bakaye Dibassy and playmaker Emanuel Reynoso — has spurred a late-season spiral. The Loons are winless in their last five games, scoring just twice in that stretch.
Adrian Heath’s squad is trending in the wrong direction, but could receive a lifeline with a match against already-eliminated San Jose and a home game against playoff contender Vancouver to close out 2022.
No. 8 Real Salt Lake (11-11-10, 43 points)
Remaining games: 10/1 at LA Galaxy; 10/9 vs. Portland Timbers
Like the Timbers, Real Salt Lake are following a similar script by likely needing something dramatic on Decision Day to find a way into the playoffs. But like Minnesota United, RSL have suffered a dip in form at the absolute worst time.
The Claret-and-Cobalt have won just once in their last seven games — 3-0 over Minnesota United — and are winless in their last four, which includes three defeats to LAFC, Austin FC and FC Cincinnati and a goalless draw against a D.C. United side already eliminated.
Also making things difficult is a brutal final two matches two in form squads — the Galaxy and Timbers.
No. 9 Vancouver Whitecaps (11-14-7, 40 points)
Remaining games: 10/1 vs. Austin FC; 10/9 at Minnesota United
After essentially being left for dead after three straight defeats, the Whitecaps have new late life (again!) after beating the LA Galaxy and all but eliminating the rival Sounders with a massive 2-1 win.
That sets up a pair of massive six-point matches — home for Austin FC and a Decision Day trip to Allianz Field that could decide the final playoff berth in the West.
No. 10 Seattle Sounders (12-16-3, 39 points)
Remaining games: 9/27 vs. FC Cincinnati; 10/2 at Sporting Kansas City; 10/9 vs. San Jose Earthquakes
The Sounders hopes of extending a consecutive playoff appearance streak to 14 is in dire straits. After back-to-back victories over Houston and Austin, the Sounders fell at Vancouver, which puts them six points below the playoff line with three games to play.
Seattle will have to likely win out, and perhaps needs some help as well, but it’s not impossible. The Rave Green have a game in hand on every other contender and their final two matches against squads in Sporting KC and San Jose that have already been eliminated.
