Are we sure Jon Jones is going to turn up at heavyweight and immediately turn back the clock to the days when he was the most dominant fighter on the planet?
The former light heavyweight champion has been in the news in recent days, as his long awaited, highly anticipated heavyweight debut is once again being discussed. Nolan King of MMA Junkie divulged this week that “Bones” has been ready and waiting on a dance partner, with former champ Stipe Miocic initially targeted, but seemingly not all that interested in getting that fight made.
According to King, the plan is for Jones to fight on March 5 at UFC 285 in Las Vegas, with heavyweight champ Francis Ngannou the first choice of opponent, and Curtis Blaydes penciled in as a backup in case “The Predator” still isn’t ready to go after having knee surgery following his win over Ciryl Gane at UFC 270.
Each of those matchups is compelling, but more intriguing to me at the moment is trying to figure out what is reasonable to expect from Jones in his eventual return to action.
QUESTIONS ABOUND (AT LEAST FOR ME)
Jones is 35 and hasn’t fought in nearly three years.
If we were talking about anyone else in the sport, everyone would be wondering what to expect from that competitor after such a lengthy stay on the sidelines and at an age when, generally speaking, fighters start to decline.
But with Jones, it seems like most people just assume he’ll waltz into the heavyweight ranks and instantly be ultra-competitive; ready to hang with Ngannou, Blaydes, or anyone else though he’s (a) never competed at heavyweight before and (b) hasn’t fought since before the pandemic.
It’d be one thing if Jones had been out here bagging successful light heavyweight title defenses and continuing to dazzle everyone with his tremendous Fight IQ, preternatural skills, and ability to consistently win fights, but that’s not the case. Instead, he’s spent the last couple years in a “bulking phase,” adding muscle and mass to his frame for a long-discussed move to heavyweight that still remains theoretical at this point.
Additionally, it’s not like Jones was blowing people away with his performances prior to his self-imposed sabbatical either.
At UFC 239, he eked out a split-decision win over Thiago Santos after the Brazilian marauder tore ligaments in each of his knees during the fight. Seven months later at UFC 247, Jones edged Dominick Reyes on the scorecards in a bout where many believe the challenger did enough to merit the victory and dethrone the longstanding titleholder.
Not only were those fights far from the dominant form Jones has displayed in the past, but they’ve aged like a pumpkin left on the stoop six months after Halloween.
Santos is 1-4 since facing Jones for the light heavyweight title, having spent more than a year on the sidelines recovering from multiple surgeries and now looking the part of a 38-year-old former contender that can no longer hang with the division’s elite.
Things have been worse for Reyes, who has been knocked out in each of his three appearances since officially coming up short against Jones right before COVID became a part of the global lexicon.
This isn’t a case of “… and they were never the same after that” either, as both Santos and Reyes made it to the final horn with Jones, neither incurring all that much damage. Jones has suggested that those fights were closer because he was struggling to find the motivation to step into the Octagon and compete, but as of right now, that’s merely a plausible explanation that hasn’t actually been proven as valid.
Allow me to explain:
When Jones fought Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165 in Toronto, reports came out afterward that the highly skilled champion hadn’t been particularly diligent when it came to training, opting instead to spend more time partying than preparing.
The fight was closer than expected, but Jones still managed to find a way to win, turned in a few more impressive efforts to remind everyone of what he’s capable of when he’s dialled in, and then trounced Gustafsson when the two finally ran it back at UFC 232 at the end of 2018.
His next six fights after that scare against “The Mauler” were all fairly one-sided results, including a pair of wins over his chief rival, Daniel Cormier. Those performances supported the idea that Jones hadn’t prepared for his first bout with Gustafsson, because if it were something else — a declining of skill, a bad stylistic matchup — one of those next six fights would have had similar close moments, and they didn’t.
But now, we haven’t seen anything since the Reyes fight to back up Jones’ suggestion that the only reason that fight and his bout with Santos before that were close was because he couldn’t get up for bouts against those two men.
Listen, I understand that when you’re Jon Jones and you’re widely considered the greatest talent to set foot inside the Octagon. You’ve never really been beaten in your career, so motivation could be difficult to come by at times, but not getting sent to The Shadow Realm by Thiago Santos, not losing my title, not getting beaten by a dynamic undefeated challenger brimming with confidence all seem like reasonable motivating factors to me.
And until I see Jones turn in a highly motivated performance, I refuse to accept that a lack of motivation was the only thing that made those fights closer than the majority of the bouts in his illustrious career
REASONS FOR BEING WARY
Part of the reason I’m wary of accepting that Jones is just going to turn up at heavyweight and get right back to being a dominant force — you know, in addition to all of the above — is that a number of the advantages that made him highly successful at light heavyweight no longer exist for him.
Jones thrived on being able to use his length and reach to dictate the terms of engagement with opponents that struggled to get inside. He threw kicks that kept them at bay, jabs that interrupted their advances, and was generally able to maintain enough space between himself and his dance partner that he could see a great deal of what was coming and react accordingly.
But that reach advantage is either not as significant or non-existent at heavyweight, and the men he’ll be facing will be carrying a more significant arsenal of weapons into the fray than the group Jones had been facing in the 205-pound weight class.
It’s one thing to not be that worried about the knockout power of Glover Teixeira or certain you can keep things standing against anyone in the division. It’s another to have Ngannou throwing cinder blocks wrapped in dynamite at your dome and a former JUCO National Champion wrestler like Blaydes looking to drive you to the canvas.
We also just haven’t seen how Jones moves and functions as a bulked up version of himself.
While he pulled a lot of the flash out of his game once he reached the top of the division, his wiry frame, long limbs, and deft movement where all things that aided him in the Octagon as a light heavyweight. But will a 230-pound version of Jones be able to do the same things? Move the same way?
Additionally, it’s not like the nearly three years he’s spent on the sidelines have been all sunshine and rainbows for the former light heavyweight champion.
He’s had multiple run-ins with law enforcement, was banned from entering Jackson-Wink MMA, where he’d trained for the majority of his career, and his relationship with his long-time fiancee and the mother of his children ended.
Each of those things individually is a challenge, and combined, it’s a lot for one person to deal with.
As such, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to me if the Jones that eventually returns is a lesser version of even the less dominant version we saw the last time he stepped int the cage.
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
I understand Jones’ reasons for being out for so long, and will not fault anyone, ever, for waiting to be paid what they believe they’re worth, especially in a sport as unforgiving as mixed martial arts.
That being said, I also feel like these last three years will end up feeling like a missed opportunity for Jones in hindsight — a chance to have logged four, five, six additional fights against elite competition that might have pushed his case for being considered the greatest fighter of all time so far over the top that it’d be difficult to convincingly argue for anyone else.
While there will always be detractors and those that refuse to put him above someone like Georges St-Pierre because of his past drug test failures, another handful of victories would make it pretty hard to argue against Jones, whose only official defeat came by way of disqualification.
Even if he simply took a year off to facilitate a move to heavyweight, and then returned to garner a win over Blaydes or Miocic or Ngannou, his position as the best fighter to grace the Octagon would be almost unassailable in terms of what he’s actually accomplished.
The majority of people seem to think Jones’ eventual return is going to play out like when Michael Jordan retired to play baseball for a couple years before returning to the hardwood and leading the Chicago Bulls to three more NBA titles.
I tend to lean more pre- and post-Thanksgiving 2009 Tiger Woods, where there have still been moments of utter brilliance and reminders of how next-level he was for a time, but ultimately, he’s never been able to consistently recapture the form he effortlessly exhibited when he was undeniably the best in the world for all those years.
My hope is that I’m wrong — I hope Jones finally returns in the first quarter of 2023 and looks every bit as dominant as he did during his prime at light heavyweight, because the sport is more interesting with him competing and the heavyweight division would become absolutely fascinating if he were to emerge as a real threat, if not win the title.
But right now, all we have is speculation about a return and unsubstantiated explanations for middling efforts against challengers that have struggled mightily since, and until those things change, I’m not convinced that Jones will be back or back to being a dominant force.
