The magnificence of Aaron Judge’s season can be summed up thusly: He will beat Shohei Ohtani in the AL MVP race, maybe by a wide margin.
Think about that. Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime talent who ranks top-10 in categories you wouldn’t believe possible for a single player. He’s expanded the idea of Most Valuable Player, bridging gaps between the two most important facets of baseball.
Yet, Judge is the overwhelming betting favorite to win MVP. He also deserves it. And to understand why, we’ll attempt to answer a loaded question:
What makes an MVP?
(First, a disclosure: much of what is explored in this column space is objective. There is no consistent definition of MVP or bullet points to follow. Media voting is a flawed process but better than the alternatives. I vote for the NBA’s MVP).
Historically speaking, the MVP is the top player of a single season rather than the best player in the sport. The two often intersect but it’s not necessary when determining an MVP. It’s an important distinction and most obvious in basketball. If it were a cumulative award, Michael Jordan and LeBron James would have more trophies. In baseball, Willie Mays’ career deserves double his pair of NL MVPs.
With that understood, there are four important categories to contemplate while choosing a winner. We’ll use them to compare Judge and Ohtani:
1) Offensive impact
This is an easy victory for Judge. As of Monday morning, he was leading the league in home runs (60), batting average (.314) and RBIs (128). The Triple Crown is in the crosshairs. Ohtani, like Judge, has been durable this season and obviously a monster at the plate, but his batting numbers pale in comparison. As of Monday morning, Ohtani had 16 fewer homers than Judge, 35 fewer RBIs, 38 fewer runs scored and 22 fewer hits.
2) Defensive impact
An easy win for Ohtani. Judge is a fine outfielder with a canon arm but he’s no ace on the mound. Ohtani has a case for the Cy Young with 14 wins and a 2.47 ERA, though he’ll likely lose that award to ageless Astro Justin Verlander. But for MVPS, stopping runs isn’t viewed as important as scoring runs. Since the introduction of the Cy Young award in 1956, only 12 pitchers were named MVP across both leagues. And arguably the greatest fielder of all-time, Ozzie Smith, never won the award.
3) Team success
Chalk a second one up for Judge. The Yankees were atop the AL East with 94 wins as of Monday morning. This will represent Judge’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance. Ohtani, on the other hand, has never played in the postseason and will miss it again this year. You can’t blame Ohtani for the Angels’ struggles but Judge certainly deserves credit for lifting and dragging the Yankees out of their midseason slump. Playoffs are hardly a prerequisite for a baseball MVP (players on non-playoff teams win more than you think), but it’s a factor. Judge, for instance, has played in more impactful games and produced in pressurized situations, which is a measuring stick that Ohtani can’t reference.
4) Intangibles
Yes, of course Ohtani is unique and dominant in ways unseen for over a century. We’re not trying to understate it. He won this award last year for that two-way aptitude. But Judge is providing something bigger. There are no records in American sports more vaunted than MLB homerun marks, which Judge is bringing back from its tainted state of the steroid era.
You can argue about 61 homers representing the true MLB record given the steroid allegations surrounding Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire. But there’s no denying 61 as the record of the American League and the Yankees.
If LeBron James eclipses Kareem-Abdul Jabbar, it won’t carry the same intrigue as Judge chasing Maris and Ruth. Beyond that, Judge can become the second Triple Crown winner in the last 55 years – and the first since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 to lead the league in homers, RBIS, batting average AND runs scored. That’s the makings of an MVP.
