As the curtains begin to close on the NFL’s regular season schedule, several squads are positioned for a postseason encore.
In the AFC specifically, we have a trio of teams who deserve to receive an “A” up to this point. There are also a bunch of bubble-type teams that can make some noise in the playoffs if they ultimately qualify.
Let’s look at the entire AFC landscape, from the top-graded teams down to the class clowns and the obvious rebuild projects. There have been some pleasant surprises, and also a few big disappointments.
The AFC’s A-list
Buffalo Bills (9-3)
The Buffalo Bills were preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl. After smashing the reigning champion L.A. Rams and the Tennessee Titans by a combined score of 72-17, Buffalo stumbled.
The Miami Dolphins snuck past the Bills 21-19 in Week 3, and the Fins continue to be a threat in the AFC East. Buffalo then reeled off four straight victories, including wins at Baltimore, at Kansas City, and at home against Pittsburgh and Green Bay. Despite being riddled by injuries, the Bills got back on track.
Following this impressive stretch of football, The Herd lost back-to-back games. Two teams that are projected to be playoff-bound, the New York Jets and the Minnesota Vikings, each handed the Bills an L.
However, Buffalo is resilient and has shown flashes of absolute dominance. The Bills rebounded and are currently riding a three-game winning streak (vs Cleveland, at Detroit, and at New England), heading into a critical Week 14 rematch with the Jets.
Buffalo has lost three games, but all of these losses were suffered by a small margin and to high-quality teams. The Bills lost to the Dolphins, Jets, and Vikings by a grand total of eight points. Expect to see Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and company leading a charge towards the Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona this February.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)
The Cincinnati Bengals are technically in second place in the AFC North, but the reigning AFC Champs are rounding into postseason form.
The Bengals began the season at 0-2, and then 2-3, suggesting that they may be suffering the same type of Super Bowl hangover that the Rams are currently struggling through.
However, Cincinnati surged forward to win six of its next seven games. When the Bengals’ offense and defense are both firing on all cylinders, they are almost unbeatable.
Most recently, Cincinnati smacked down two AFC division leaders in back-to-back weeks, humbling Tennessee and Kansas City.
Following the Bengals’ impressive 27-24 victory over the Chiefs in Week 13, Joe Burrow is a serious contender to win league MVP. Cincinnati has now beaten Kansas City in three straight contests.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)
The NFL’s darling, Patrick Mahomes III, is still the frontrunner to win his second MVP award for his performance in progress this season.
The Kansas City Chiefs are still perhaps the most feared team in the AFC, but Andy Reid’s squad has proven itself to be vulnerable and beatable by the conference’s top talent. The Chiefs lost to both the Bills and the Bengals this year, and remember they also slipped against the Colts in Week 3.
Kansas City’s most recent loss in Cincinnati is particularly painful, because it may represent a changing of the guard atop the AFC. Tight end Travis Kelce could only look on in disbelief as his late-game fumble was converted into points by Burrow and crew. Time ran out on the Chiefs as Mahomes limped off the field with a fire burning in his eyes. It would be foolish to count KC out, but the Chiefs need to redefine themselves down the stretch if they want a crack at winning another Vince Lombardi Trophy.
B is for Bubble
Tennessee Titans (7-5)
Yes, the Tennessee Titans are leading a weak AFC South division comfortably, and Derrick Henry can literally carry them on his back at any given moment.
No one is suggesting that the Titans are on the bubble for winning the South and reaching the postseason. However, Tennessee is on the bubble when it comes to being consistent, dominant, and proving itself to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The Titans have lost two consecutive games, and both of these losses came against serious challengers to the throne that has been prematurely vacated by the Rams.
The Eagles picked the Titans apart in Week 13, winning 35-10, and Cincy took out Tennessee 20-16 on its own field the week prior.
Of the five losses the Titans have, three of them came against our AFC “A-listers” (Bills, Bengals, Chiefs). The other two defeats were suffered at the hands of the Eagles (11-1) and the N.Y. Giants (7-4-1).
The bottom line is that if Tennessee doesn’t prove that it can beat the elite teams, it will not be an elite team. The Titans face a huge test in Week 17 when they play host to the Dallas Cowboys (9-3).
Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
The Baltimore Ravens are bona fide Super Bowl contenders when everyone is healthy. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. The Ravens have suffered setbacks and injuries at almost every major position, the latest being a knee injury to franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Baltimore squeaked by the Denver Broncos 10-9 this past week on the arm of backup QB Tyler Huntley, but how the Ravens perform in the coming weeks will determine just how dangerous they truly are.
Even when healthy, Baltimore has collapsed late and lost several close games. Head Coach John Harbaugh has made many bold calls, often without obtaining the desired result. The Ravens have all of the necessary ingredients to make Super Bowl stew, but their recipe needs a bit of tweaking. Of the five remaining games on Baltimore’s schedule, four of them come against divisional foes. It’s time to start cooking.
Miami Dolphins (8-4)
Despite being second-guessed in the offseason by coaches and fans, and suffering a nasty concussion earlier this year, Tua Tagovailoa is still standing tall.
Tagovailoa, along with his new weapon of choice Tyreek Hill, have been carving up NFL defenses all season. Tagovailoa has vaulted himself into the MVP conversation, and the Dolphins have won five of their last six games.
Miami has a difficult schedule to close out the season (at Chargers, at Bills, vs Packers, at Patriots, vs Jets), but the Dolphins have a chance to emerge in chiseled postseason form if they can find a way to win most of those games.
New York Jets (7-5)
Undoubtedly the biggest surprise on this list, the New York Jets have officially taken flight. This Jets team has real moxie and can play with anyone.
New York has played with three different quarterbacks this season (Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White), which is a testament to the change in culture within the Jets locker room. Regardless of who the signal caller is, the Jets have shown true depth and talent on their roster, and a tenacious team attitude. Youth and exuberance rule the roost.
The Jets were beaten soundly by the Ravens in Week 1, which acted as a wake-up call. After that, New York has lost to Cincinnati (reigning AFC Champs), twice to New England (Bill Belichick is a nuisance), and most recently in Minnesota (10-2, second seed in the NFC). The Week 13 dogfight with the Vikings was winnable. The Jets’ D is stiff and unforgiving. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are terrors in the secondary.
No one will want to face the Jets in the playoffs, and they represent a true wild card.
C is for Close (But No Cigar)
Los Angeles Chargers & New England Patriots (6-6)
The injury bug has hit the L.A. Chargers especially hard, and the ball just hasn’t been bouncing the right way for Justin Herbert and the Bolts.
The Chargers are quite competitive, and it would not be surprising to see them in the Super Bowl convo a lot in the coming years. However, L.A. would need a real jolt (and some luck) to hit the playoff bracket. It’s certainly possible, but not likely. An 8-9 record seems probable.
Belichick and the Patriots refuse to go away. Despite being in last place in the AFC East, New England still garners a measure of respect. The Pats swept the season series with the Jets (again), and the defense is formidable, but New England will be lucky to finish 8-9.
Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Vegas Raiders (5-7)
Mike Tomlin may suffer his first losing season in 16 years of coaching in Pittsburgh, but it won’t be for lack of effort. Tomlin and his troops have grit.
The Steelers get the Ravens (twice), the Raiders, the Panthers, and then the Browns to close out the 2022-23 campaign. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is getting valuable reps, and Pittsburgh always seems to be competitive.
Deshaun Watson showed up too late to the party, and unless he miraculously catches fire, the Browns may not win another game this season. Perhaps Week 16 vs New Orleans? At Cincinnati, vs Baltimore, at Washington, and at Pittsburgh aren’t promising.
The Raiders have a powerful offensive triumvirate in Derek Carr, Davante Adams, and Josh Jacobs. What Las Vegas doesn’t have is a penchant for winning close games.
Playing in the AFC West isn’t helping the Raiders’ cause, but that won’t change. Vegas has a rough road to travel in order to make the playoffs, but it is still a possibility. The Raiders have won three straight, and look to extend their streak against the hapless Rams in Week 14. Then life gets really difficult (vs Pats, at Steelers, vs Niners & Chiefs).
D is for Disastrous
The Entire AFC South (minus the TennesseeTitans)
When the Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) signed possible future Hall of Fame quarterback Matt Ryan in the offseason, there were high hopes. Before long, those high hopes were dragged back to Earth, stomped, and flushed down a Lucas Oil Stadium toilet.
Ryan was benched, then HC Frank Reich was fired, Ryan was reinstated as starter, and this past week Ryan committed four turnovers during a 54-19 devastation of the Colts at the hands of the Cowboys.
As it turns out, star RB Jonathan Taylor is not nearly as effective in a negative game script. The Colts might find a way to be the first team in history to lose their BYE week. Indy’s revolving door at quarterback will continue next season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) have shown some progress behind franchise QB hopeful Trevor Lawrence, but not enough to warrant any real excitement. Lawrence has improved his completion percentage to a respectable 65.6% and is throwing significantly less interceptions, but the Jaguars aren’t winning enough games yet.
With a record of 1-10-1, you might wonder why the Houston Texans are not receiving an F here. The Texans are in the midst of one of the truest rebuilds of our time.
Within the last few years, Houston has waved goodbye to all of the faces of their franchise. Star wideout DeAndre Hopkins, defensive powerhouse J.J. Watt, and finally troubled but talented QB Deshaun Watson.
Considering all of that, the Texans have earned a D grade for managing to win one game and tie in another. Houston is fighting to get out of the muck. If the Texans can draft a legitimate franchise quarterback in the 2023 draft, it will be a huge step in the right direction.
F is for Flabbergasted
The Denver Broncos (3-9) are without a doubt the most disappointing storyline in the AFC this season. Russell Wilson must be thinking that he’s trapped in a nightmare, and he’s hoping for his wife Ciara to wake him up with breakfast in bed. Unfortunately for Wilson, this “bizarro” world is his reality. The Broncos are basically out of contention, and Wilson’s replacement in Seattle (Geno Smith) is having a career year.
Wilson has been to two Super Bowls, winning one, so it’s likely that he’ll bounce back from this forgettable season. The Broncos are early candidates for making the biggest single-season turnaround in 2023-24, but at present have left us quite flabbergasted.
